Will human life expectancy increase by >1 year in 2026?

Will Microsoft's new glass data storage method be publicly demonstrated by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Microsoft publicly demonstrates its glass data storage technology, as described in the TweakTown article, by December 31, 2026. A public demonstration must be confirmed by a credible news source or official Microsoft announcement. The demonstration should showcase the technology's capability to store data on borosilicate glass.

This market resolves to Yes if by March 31, 2027, there is documented evidence of Edison’s revived nickel-iron battery being used in at least one commercial application, as reported by reliable technology or energy industry sources.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, human brain cells on a chip, similar to those developed by Cortical Labs, can play the game Doom with performance metrics (e.g., completion time, accuracy, strategic decision-making) that are comparable to those of average human gamers, as determined by a verified and publicly available demonstration or study.

Will India produce its first domestically designed semiconductor chip by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if India successfully produces and publicly announces the completion of its first domestically designed semiconductor chip by December 31, 2026. The chip must be entirely designed and fabricated within India as part of its electronics manufacturing initiative.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study confirms by December 31, 2027, that liquid crystal monomers (LCMs), found in e-waste, have gene-altering effects on humans. Reports or preliminary results are insufficient; the study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal and directly link LCMs to changes in human gene activity.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA's PACE Satellite identifies a new substantial source of nitrogen dioxide pollution in a major city (population over 1 million) not currently recognized as a pollution hotspot, by December 31, 2026. The finding must be confirmed through NASA's official reports or a peer-reviewed scientific publication acknowledging PACE's data.