Will a major scientific journal adopt 'peer replication' as a standard by the end of 2026?

Will China's Tianwen-2 successfully collect samples from Kamo'oalewa by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if official and credible sources, such as the China National Space Administration (CNSA), confirm that Tianwen-2 has successfully collected samples from the quasi-moon Kamo'oalewa by December 31, 2026. If no success or failure is confirmed by that date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed paper is published in a top-tier journal (e.g., *Nature*, *Science*, *Astrophysical Journal*) with significant contributions from the RHINE AI model, as cited in the study, by August 31, 2026. The research must pertain to neutron star mergers or the synthesis of heavy elements.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a major science journal publishes findings confirming the discovery of a previously undocumented galaxy cluster from the cosmic web using data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by August 31, 2026. Such findings must be formally announced and publicly available. The market resolves to No if no such discovery is announced by the resolution date.

This market resolves to Yes if official confirmation is publicly announced by NASA, the European Space Agency, or another authoritative body that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has identified and confirmed the chemical composition of a previously unknown substance on Pluto by August 15, 2026. If no confirmation or announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if any reputable scientific organization or peer-reviewed journal confirms, by August 31, 2026, that the mysterious spectral signal observed by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on Pluto or Titan corresponds to a new molecule not previously identified elsewhere in the solar system. Confirmation must be reported and publicly available in credible scientific news outlets or journal publications.

This market resolves to Yes if by August 31, 2026, official research, based on gravitational wave detection data from 2026, identifies and confirms direct evidence of a second-generation black hole merger (a black hole created through the merger of prior black holes). Confirmation must come from a reputable source such as LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, or an internationally recognized peer-reviewed publication.