Will Meta's new social media feature outperform TikTok's latest feature by Q1 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if a humanoid robot achieves a time faster than the current 200-meter sprint world record by December 31, 2027. The current record for humans is 19.19 seconds, set by Usain Bolt in 2009. Verification will be based on reports from recognized international athletic and robotics competitions.

Will Google or Meta form an eligible agreement under the Australian News Levy by November 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if either Google or Meta successfully finalize an eligible agreement with local media outlets under the new Australian News Levy requirements before November 30, 2026. This will defer their liability under the legislation for that financial period.

Will the new Australian tech levy significantly impact major tech companies' revenues by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if major tech companies (e.g., Meta, Google) officially report a significant impact on their revenues due to the new Australian tech levy in their earnings or official statements by the specified date. A significant impact is defined as an official acknowledgment in earnings calls or statements that the levy materially affected their reported revenue.

Will Microsoft confirm the Windows 11 price increase for PC manufacturers by September 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Microsoft officially confirms, through a public statement or press release, that the Windows 11 licensing fees for PC manufacturers will increase, by September 20, 2026. Unofficial reports, anonymous confirmations, or leaks do not count for resolution.

Will Google DeepMind close the AI performance gap with OpenAI by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a credible and widely recognized source, such as a major tech publication or an industry report, confirms that Google DeepMind's AI models match or exceed the performance of comparable models from OpenAI by December 31, 2026.

Will a major U.S. state sue another Big Tech company over child safety concerns by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if any major U.S. state government files a lawsuit against another major Big Tech company (e.g., Google, Apple, Amazon, etc.) over child safety concerns by December 31, 2026. A major state is defined as being among the top 10 by population according to the most recent census data.