Will the NSF reverse its recent grant reduction decision by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if official reports by December 31, 2026, show a substantial reduction in the invasive blue crab population due to the octopus release experiment off Italy's Adriatic coast.

This market resolves to Yes if the molecular compound 5-tetradecyloxy-2-furoic acid (TOFA) begins human clinical trials focused on obesity treatment by December 31, 2027. TOFA has shown promising results in mice for increasing energy usage and reducing body fat. The resolution will be based on official announcements from scientific institutions or pharmaceutical companies.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces a new application of its GeoCryoAI framework, beyond mapping zero-curtain conditions, by February 1, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if any AI-designed intrabodies are used in clinical trials for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, or Motor Neurone Disease by December 31, 2027. To confirm resolution, announcements from reputable research institutions or clinical trial registries will be used.

This market resolves to Yes if a major scientific journal such as Nature, Science, or Cell publishes an article by December 2027 that significantly revises the understanding of 'disruptive science' in light of new methodologies or data corrections. The article must have a clear impact on the field, as evidenced by significant citations or coverage in science policy discussions.

This market resolves to Yes if the newly tested spectrometer, used during the most recent eclipse, detects a previously undocumented solar phenomenon during the next solar eclipse expected to occur in 2027.