Will the Strait of Bab el Mandeb remain blocked beyond September 30, 2026?

Will the United States launch a military attack on Iran by August 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if credible sources, such as the U.S. Department of Defense, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, BBC), or official statements from the U.S. government, confirm that the United States has launched a military attack on Iran by August 15, 2026. The market resolves to No otherwise. Airstrikes, drone strikes, or other direct military offensives specifically targeting Iran will qualify for resolution.

Will Tropical Storm Bertha cause record-breaking insured damages in the United States by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if verified reports from insurance industry sources or government agencies confirm that Tropical Storm Bertha results in record-breaking insured damages (defined as exceeding any prior record for a tropical storm in the United States, adjusted for inflation) by July 31, 2026. If no such confirmation is made by then, the market resolves to No.

Will Andrew and Tristan Tate face formal charges in the U.S. by August 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Andrew and/or Tristan Tate are formally charged with criminal offenses in the United States by August 15, 2026, as confirmed by credible governmental or law enforcement statements (e.g., Department of Justice press releases). If no formal charges are announced by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Will air quality alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke persist in the U.S. past August 1, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if any U.S. state remains under active air quality alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke beyond August 1, 2026. Official air quality alerts must be verified through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or similar government agency reports.

Will the Canadian wildfire smoke cause any U.S. city to issue new air quality alerts between July 19 and July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if any U.S. city issues a new air quality alert due to wildfire smoke originating from Canada between July 19, 2026, and July 31, 2026. Official announcements by local, state, or federal agencies will be used as the resolution source.

This market resolves to Yes if public and credible reports confirm that commercial shipping traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026. Public confirmation can come from governments, international maritime organizations, or major verified news outlets. If no such reports are available by this date, the market resolves to No.