Will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened to international shipping by May 31, 2026?

Will Typhoon Bavi make landfall in Taiwan as a Category 4 storm or higher by July 16, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Typhoon Bavi is officially recorded as making landfall in Taiwan as a Category 4 storm or higher (maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph or 209 km/h) by July 16, 2026. If the typhoon does not make landfall in Taiwan or does so at a lower category, this market resolves to No. Official confirmation will come from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau or other widely recognized meteorological authorities.

Will the far-right AfD win at least one state government leadership position in Germany by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party wins at least one state-level government leadership position (e.g., Minister-President or equivalent title in Germany) by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as German state election commissions, reputable news organizations, or official announcements. Speculation or unverified claims will not count.

Will a nationwide heat-related state of emergency be declared in the United States by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government declares a nationwide state of emergency due to the ongoing heatwave by July 20, 2026. Partial or state-specific emergencies do not count—only a federal, nationwide declaration officially announced by the White House or a relevant federal agency.

Will the U.S. announce additional military actions against Iran by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. government officially announces any new military actions targeting Iran (airstrikes, naval maneuvers, or other offensive operations) by July 20, 2026. Statements from the Department of Defense, White House, or other official government bodies will be used to determine the resolution.

Will Iran fire on another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if credible reports or official statements confirm that Iran fires on another commercial vessel (civilian cargo or tanker) attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz between June 27, 2026, and July 31, 2026 (inclusive). 'Firing on' includes any missile, rocket, artillery, or gunfire targeting the vessel, regardless of damage inflicted. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable sources such as government agencies, independent monitors, or multiple major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, AP, or similar.

Will the U.S. Senate successfully override a presidential veto on ending the Iran war authorization by July 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the United States Senate overrides President Trump's veto to end the authorization for the war in Iran by reaching a two-thirds majority vote by July 15, 2026. This resolution will be based on official Senate records or widely reported news from credible outlets. If no veto override occurs by that date, the market resolves to No.