Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resume by August 31, 2026?

Will Typhoon Bavi cause at least 20 fatalities in Japan, Taiwan, or China by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if verified reports by official sources (e.g., national governments or credible news outlets such as Reuters, AP, or BBC) confirm that Typhoon Bavi has caused at least 20 fatalities in total across Japan, Taiwan, or China by 11:59 PM UTC on July 20, 2026. Fatalities caused directly or indirectly by the typhoon, including flooding, landslides, or other storm-related effects, will count. The market resolves to No otherwise.

Will the far-right AfD win at least one state government leadership position in Germany by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party wins at least one state-level government leadership position (e.g., Minister-President or equivalent title in Germany) by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as German state election commissions, reputable news organizations, or official announcements. Speculation or unverified claims will not count.

Will a nationwide heat-related state of emergency be declared in the United States by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government declares a nationwide state of emergency due to the ongoing heatwave by July 20, 2026. Partial or state-specific emergencies do not count—only a federal, nationwide declaration officially announced by the White House or a relevant federal agency.

Will the U.S. announce additional military actions against Iran by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. government officially announces any new military actions targeting Iran (airstrikes, naval maneuvers, or other offensive operations) by July 20, 2026. Statements from the Department of Defense, White House, or other official government bodies will be used to determine the resolution.

Will Iran fire on another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if credible reports or official statements confirm that Iran fires on another commercial vessel (civilian cargo or tanker) attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz between June 27, 2026, and July 31, 2026 (inclusive). 'Firing on' includes any missile, rocket, artillery, or gunfire targeting the vessel, regardless of damage inflicted. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable sources such as government agencies, independent monitors, or multiple major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, AP, or similar.

Will the details of the US-Iran peace deal be publicly released by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the full details of the US-Iran peace deal, as announced by President Trump, are publicly released by July 31, 2026. This includes the official publication of the terms agreed upon by both the US and Iran. Ambiguities or conflicting accounts will not qualify unless the official documents are made available to the public.