Will the U.S. announce additional military actions against Iran by July 20, 2026?

Will the far-right AfD win at least one state government leadership position in Germany by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party wins at least one state-level government leadership position (e.g., Minister-President or equivalent title in Germany) by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as German state election commissions, reputable news organizations, or official announcements. Speculation or unverified claims will not count.

Will a nationwide heat-related state of emergency be declared in the United States by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government declares a nationwide state of emergency due to the ongoing heatwave by July 20, 2026. Partial or state-specific emergencies do not count—only a federal, nationwide declaration officially announced by the White House or a relevant federal agency.

Will Iran fire on another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if credible reports or official statements confirm that Iran fires on another commercial vessel (civilian cargo or tanker) attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz between June 27, 2026, and July 31, 2026 (inclusive). 'Firing on' includes any missile, rocket, artillery, or gunfire targeting the vessel, regardless of damage inflicted. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable sources such as government agencies, independent monitors, or multiple major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, AP, or similar.

Will the U.S. Senate successfully override a presidential veto on ending the Iran war authorization by July 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the United States Senate overrides President Trump's veto to end the authorization for the war in Iran by reaching a two-thirds majority vote by July 15, 2026. This resolution will be based on official Senate records or widely reported news from credible outlets. If no veto override occurs by that date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the preliminary report on the Missouri plane crash involving skydivers is publicly released by July 17, 2026, as reported by credible news agencies.

Will the details of the US-Iran peace deal be publicly released by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the full details of the US-Iran peace deal, as announced by President Trump, are publicly released by July 31, 2026. This includes the official publication of the terms agreed upon by both the US and Iran. Ambiguities or conflicting accounts will not qualify unless the official documents are made available to the public.