Will U.S. gas prices average above $4.00 per gallon by October 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if 95% or more of the households in Hawaii that lost power due to Tropical Storm Lala have their power restored by end of day on September 10, 2026. Verification will be based on reports from Hawaiian Electric Company or other official sources.

Will Iran and Oman finalize a deal on the Strait of Hormuz by November 1, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Iran and Oman publicly announce a finalized deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz by November 1, 2026. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by this date.

This market resolves to Yes if an official international agreement or pact is reached at the COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, specifically focusing on land restoration, desertification, or drought management, and is publicly announced by August 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if, by September 30, 2026, there is a public announcement from the United Nations or relevant education summit officials confirming an increase in funding for education systems as a result of the UN Transforming Education Summit + 4. Otherwise, it resolves to No.

Will a significant diplomatic agreement be announced between Russia and North Korea by September 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if an official and significant diplomatic agreement between Russia and North Korea is publicly announced by either or both countries before September 15, 2026. 'Significant' is defined as any agreement related to trade, military, or an equivalent substantive issue.

This market resolves to Yes if the Strait of Bab el Mandeb continues to be blocked by military forces or other disruptions related to the ongoing conflict beyond September 30, 2026. Verification will be based on credible news reports confirming whether the strait remains closed to commercial shipping.