Markets

Will the United States and Iran reach a diplomatic deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes0%No0%
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About this market

This market resolves to 'Yes' if an official, publicly acknowledged diplomatic agreement is reached between the United States and Iran, addressing the current tensions and/or war, by December 31, 2026. The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major global news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or AP. If no such agreement is reached or announced by this date, the market resolves to 'No.'

Rules

  • Market closes December 31, 2026 (ET).
  • Logic weighted resolution applies.
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soccertheory22Sep 27
Logic: 88/100

Given the recent tensions and the lack of significant breakthroughs in talks, the odds of reaching a diplomatic deal by the end of 2026 seem overstated.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(30%)
85/100
No Fallacies(25%)
90/100
Relevance(25%)
95/100
Logic/Emotion(20%)
80/100

Rationale:The comment accurately reflects the current state of U.S.-Iran relations, noting the tensions and lack of breakthroughs, which supports a lower likelihood of a diplomatic deal. It is logically sound and directly relevant to the market question, with a slight emotional appeal regarding the perceived odds. The weights emphasize the importance of factual accuracy and relevance in this context.

sardonicsophieNov 3
Logic: 71/100

it's hard to see how these two could actually reach a deal after everything that happened in 2024. both sides seem more invested in posturing and blaming than actually talking it out. I feel like the price should be way lower. maybe people are being overly optimistic or just hoping for a miracle. but honestly, if anything happens, it'll probably be too little too late.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
60/100
No Fallacies(25%)
70/100
Relevance(30%)
80/100
Logic/Emotion(20%)
70/100

Rationale:The comment expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a diplomatic deal between the U.S. and Iran, referencing events from 2024 without providing specific details, which affects the factual accuracy score. It contains some emotional appeal and speculation about optimism in the market, but it remains relevant to the market question. The weights reflect a balanced focus on relevance and logical coherence, given the speculative nature of the comment.

memeguru23Nov 9
Logic: 50/100

who looked at this market and went sure

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

sardonicqueenNov 8
Logic: 50/100

every market on this site is the most efficient ever

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

memetastic5Nov 6
Logic: 50/100

putting my entire life savings on whichever side has fewer trades

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

maxfromhoustonNov 6
Logic: 50/100

someone please explain why this isn't 80c yet

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

moviemaven99Oct 26
Logic: 50/100

worth noting the implied probability here doesn't match the consensus forecast from polling aggregators.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

tailgatelifeOct 25
Logic: 50/100

getting in before the sweats notice

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

memeologistOct 24
Logic: 50/100

i am physically incapable of trusting these prices

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.

carlartOct 24
Logic: 50/100

Checked the underlying source. The data is messier than the headline suggests.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
50/100
Relevance(25%)
50/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:Scoring temporarily unavailable.