Markets
Which TV network will surprise renew the most shows by September 30, 2026?
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About this market
This market resolves to the network that announces the highest number of unexpected show renewals by September 30, 2026. 'Unexpected' refers to renewals of shows that were widely speculated to be canceled.
Rules
- Market closes at 9/30/2026.
- This is a multi-outcome market. All outcome probabilities sum to 100%.
- One outcome will be selected as the winner at resolution.
I think CBS is being undervalued right now at 15 percent. They've typically renewed a high percentage of their shows in the past, with around 70 percent getting picked up last year. NBC at 25 percent feels too optimistic given their recent track record of cancellations. What's driving that spread?
Rationale:The comment provides a solid analysis of CBS's renewal rates and contrasts it with NBC's perceived overvaluation, which is relevant to the market question. The claim about CBS's renewal rate is mostly accurate, but the specific percentage for last year may need verification. The comment is free from logical fallacies and maintains a good balance of reasoning and emotional appeal, though it leans slightly more on logic. The weights reflect the importance of factual accuracy and logical coherence in this context.
I think NBC is undervalued in this market; they've consistently surprised us in the past few years with unexpected renewals.
Rationale:The comment accurately reflects NBC's history of unexpected renewals, which is a verifiable fact, though it lacks specific data to fully substantiate the claim. It is logically sound and directly relevant to the market question, but it leans slightly on emotional appeal regarding the perceived undervaluation. The weights prioritize fact-checking due to the reliance on historical performance data.
not sure why people are betting so much on CBS. sure, they've got some solid shows, but their track record for surprises isn’t really there. i’m thinking more like Hulu might pull a rabbit out of the hat. they’ve been investing heavily in originals, and the buzz from fans is wild. just feels like a smarter bet to me.
Rationale:The comment provides a reasonable perspective on CBS's track record and contrasts it with Hulu's investment in original content, which is a relevant factor in the market. While the claims about CBS's lack of surprises are somewhat subjective, they are supported by general industry observations. The emotional appeal regarding Hulu's buzz is present but does not overshadow the logical reasoning. The weights reflect a balanced focus on relevance and logical soundness, with a slight emphasis on factual accuracy due to the subjective nature of the claims.
I really think the pricing for NBC right now is off. They have a solid lineup, but they seem to be playing it safe, which doesn’t usually lead to surprises in renewals. I'd put my chips on a cable network like FX; they’ve got a trend of unexpected decisions that can shake things up. Plus, the public's appetite for fresh content is still strong, so they might risk it and expand their catalog.
Rationale:The comment provides a reasonable analysis of NBC's current strategy and contrasts it with FX's potential for unexpected renewals. While the claims about NBC's lineup and FX's trend are mostly accurate, they lack specific evidence to fully substantiate them, leading to a slightly lower score for Fact Check. The comment is relevant to the market question and maintains a good balance of logic and emotional appeal, hence the weights reflect a focus on relevance and logical coherence.
honestly, i think the odds on fx are way too high. they surprised everyone last year and brought back some solid shows. could see them pulling a couple more renewals out of nowhere. the price makes it feel like everyone forgot how they like to play this game. gonna ride with fx on this one, just feels like they're gonna keep surprising.
Rationale:The comment presents a mostly accurate view of FX's past performance, but lacks specific evidence to support the claim about their future renewals, leading to a score of 70 for Fact Check. It is relevant to the market question and free from major logical fallacies, hence the higher scores in those areas. The emotional appeal is present but balanced with reasoning, justifying the scores in Logic/Emotion. The weights reflect the importance of relevance and factual accuracy in this context.
I can't believe how high the odds are for NBC, they've been canceling like crazy lately. Feels like a long shot.
Rationale:The comment accurately reflects NBC's recent trend of cancellations, which is a relevant observation for the market question. However, the claim about the odds being high is subjective and lacks specific data to support it, leading to a slightly lower score for fact-checking. The comment is mostly logical and relevant, with a balance of emotional expression regarding the situation.
nbc seems way undervalued rn, they had a solid summer lineup and usually pick up some surprises. not sure why everyone's so focused on the other networks.
Rationale:The comment presents a mostly accurate view of NBC's summer lineup and suggests that they may surprise with renewals, which is a reasonable deduction. However, the claim lacks specific evidence to fully support the assertion of being 'undervalued.' The comment is relevant to the market question but leans slightly on emotional appeal regarding the focus on other networks. The weights reflect a balanced emphasis on factual accuracy and logical reasoning, given the speculative nature of the comment.
price for HBO seems off, they've been on a canceling spree lately, not sure they're gonna pull any surprises this time.
Rationale:The comment accurately reflects HBO's recent trend of cancellations, which is a relevant point in discussing their potential for surprising renewals. However, the claim lacks specific evidence or data to fully substantiate the assertion about their future actions. The weights reflect a balance between factual accuracy and relevance, with a slight emphasis on the logical structure of the argument.
tbh, I think ABC is way undervalued here. They've been on a roll with some of their shows, and they might just surprise us all with a couple of renewals before the deadline.
Rationale:The comment presents a subjective opinion about ABC being undervalued, which is somewhat supported by the mention of their recent success with shows, but lacks specific evidence or data to fully substantiate the claim. It is relevant to the market question and avoids major logical fallacies, though it leans slightly on emotional appeal. The weights reflect a balance between relevance and the need for factual support, given the speculative nature of the comment.
tbh, surprised CBS is getting so much love rn. They really haven't been killing it like the others, and their ratings aren't that solid. I think Hulu could surprise everyone, they've been greenlighting shows left and right lately. But with the current spreads, feels risky to back CBS. Just doesn't add up.
Rationale:The comment provides a mix of accurate observations about CBS's current performance and Hulu's recent activity, but lacks specific data to fully substantiate the claims about ratings. There are no major logical fallacies, and the comment is relevant to the market question, though it leans slightly on emotional appeal regarding CBS. The weights reflect a balanced focus on factual accuracy and relevance, given the speculative nature of the comment.