Markets
Who will be the next to leave the Trump administration?
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About this market
Resolves to the first listed senior Trump administration official to publicly announce their departure (resignation, firing, or removal from their current role) after August 12, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2026, as reported by at least two credible national news outlets. A departure counts at the time it is first announced, even if the effective date is later. Karoline Leavitt's August 12 announcement predates this market and does not count. 'Someone else' covers any other Cabinet-level or Senate-confirmed administration official, or senior White House staff of assistant-to-the-President rank. If no qualifying departure is announced by December 31, 2026, resolves to 'No further departures in 2026'.
Rules
- Market closes at 1/1/2027.
- This is a multi-outcome market. All outcome probabilities sum to 100%.
- One outcome will be selected as the winner at resolution.
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