Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially approves any AI-based tool for translating clinical trial consent forms by March 31, 2027. Approval must be publicly announced by the FDA or the tool's developers, and explicitly described as intended for use in translating clinical trial consent forms.

This market resolves to Yes if the CAPA Asia Aviation Summit & Awards for Excellence introduces a new sustainability initiative during its event in 2026 or any related announcements up to March 2027. The initiative must be officially confirmed by the summit organizers or reported in credible aviation publications such as Aviation Week or similar.

This market resolves to Yes if credible public health data released by March 2027 shows at least a 30% reduction in COVID infection rates in the U.S. compared to the same period in the previous year, attributed to the use of new vaccines targeting the XFG variant.

Will Meta's new social media feature outperform TikTok's latest feature by Q1 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Meta's new social media feature gains more monthly active users (MAUs) than TikTok's latest feature by the end of Q1 2027, as reported by independent and recognized market analysts or official company disclosures.

This market resolves to Yes if by March 31, 2027, there is documented evidence of Edison’s revived nickel-iron battery being used in at least one commercial application, as reported by reliable technology or energy industry sources.

This market resolves to Yes if NetEase reports total revenue exceeding $10 billion for the fiscal year 2026 in their official financial statements. The resolution will rely on NetEase's announcements via their annual report or a press release published by a reputable financial news source.

Will Disney's plan to turn Disney+ into a comprehensive membership ecosystem show a 10% increase in active subscribers by Q1 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Disney+ shows an increase of at least 10% in active subscribers in their first quarterly report of 2027, following the implementation of their new membership ecosystem plan. Relevant subscription numbers must be released by Disney in an official earnings report.

Will the U.S. GDP growth rate exceed 3.0% in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. GDP growth rate for the year 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exceeds 3.0%. The resolution will occur following the official release of the 2026 annual GDP report, typically published in Q1 of the following year. Data from other sources will not be used for resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if, by March 31, 2027, a peer-reviewed scientific study confirms that energy in turbulence can transfer from small to large scales (backward energy cascade), reversing the traditional forward cascade model, as demonstrated by computer simulations at KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Confirmation must be published in a reputable scientific journal.

This market resolves to Yes if reported global crypto money-laundering activities, as published by a reputable source like Chainalysis, exceed $90 billion for the year 2026. Verification needs to be from data or reports released within the first quarter of 2027. The estimation must come from recognized blockchain analysis firms or credible financial institutions.

This market resolves to Yes if peer-reviewed study results published by March 2027 show that the dual-drug strategy significantly improves clinical outcomes (such as progression-free survival or overall response rate) for patients with triple-negative breast cancer compared to current standard treatments.

This market resolves to Yes if General Motors reports in its official 2026 financial statements a reduction in electric vehicle (EV) losses by more than $1 billion compared to 2025. The determination will be based on their fiscal year-end reporting, typically published in their annual report or results announcements for the financial year ending December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if any major US health system publicly announces official integration or collaboration with Oura smart rings for patient monitoring or data integration by March 31, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if official scientific reports confirm that the Greenland Ice Sheet has contributed more than 1mm to global sea-level rise in the calendar year of 2026. The resolution will be based on peer-reviewed studies or reports from recognized scientific organizations, such as the IPCC or NASA, released by March 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if official reports or ratings data indicate an increase in viewership for Southern Conference men's basketball games broadcast on CBS Sports Network during the 2026-27 season compared to the 2025-26 season.

This market resolves to Yes if, by March 31, 2027, official reports confirm that over 50% of Punjab's rice cultivation area has adopted the Direct Seeded Rice (DSR) method as part of the state's sustainable agriculture initiatives. Verification will be based on reports from the Punjab government's agriculture department or a credible national news source.

This market resolves to Yes if the global recorded music revenue, as reported by MIDiA Research or other authoritative industry sources, exceeds $42 billion for the year 2026. This will take into account revenue from streaming, merchandise, live performances, and branding rights.

This market resolves to Yes if NMDC, India's largest iron ore producer, produces over 55 million tonnes of iron ore during the fiscal year 2026-2027, as officially reported by NMDC or verified national statistics agencies.

This market resolves to Yes if there is credible evidence by April 2027 that the expansion of Cardinal Health's Actinium-225 (Ac-225) production has successfully eased supply constraints for targeted alpha therapies. Confirmation can come from industry reports, announcements from Cardinal Health, or independent healthcare analyses indicating a reduction in supply issues.

Automated predictive market for Culture sector.

Will Bitcoin exceed $273k in 2027?

Automated predictive market for Tech sector.

This market resolves to Yes if the CDC's official report indicates that the US infant mortality rate for 2026 is below 5.0 per 1,000 live births.