What happens to your position when a prediction market is voided

You bought "Yes" at 80 cents, the event gets cancelled, and the market does not pay $1 or $0. What happens next depends on the platform and on the specific contract. On Polymarket a market with no applicable outcome can resolve 50/50, so each token redeems for $0.50. On Kalshi a market can settle at a "last fair market price" or a non-standard payout like 50-50, and the rules for each contract say which. In neither case should you assume your purchase price comes back.

Is a void the same as a refund?

No, and this is the misunderstanding that costs people the most. In ordinary usage a voided bet returns your stake. Prediction market platforms mostly do something else: they settle the contract at a fixed fraction of $1, and your gain or loss is the gap between that fraction and what you paid.

Here is the arithmetic. If you paid 80 cents and the contract settles at 50 cents, you lose 30 cents per contract. If you paid 20 cents and it settles at 50 cents, you gain 30 cents. Both traders watched the same market "fail", and they ended up in opposite places. A true refund would have left both at zero.

How does Polymarket handle a tie or a 50-50 outcome?

Polymarket's resolution documentation lists "Unknown / 50-50" as an outcome for cases where neither outcome applies, and calls it rare. The market then resolves 50/50 and each token redeems for $0.50 instead of $1.00. The same page says an undisputed proposal takes about 2 hours to resolve and a disputed one "4-6 days total", with a 2-hour challenge period first and a vote by UMA token holders if someone disputes.

The same documentation page says nothing about cancelled markets or refunds. Polymarket's redemption page describes only the winning and losing case ("Each winning token returns 1 pUSD, while losing tokens return 0") and does not mention the 50/50 case. What a market's rules say about a postponed or cancelled event, you have to read in that market's own description.

How does Kalshi handle a cancelled or unresolvable market?

Kalshi's market FAQ states it plainly: "There are certain instances where a market can resolve to the last fair market price or a non-standard payout like 50-50." For a player who does not play, it says some markets "may adjust to a fair market value or have specific DNP provisions", and that the treatment "is defined in the specific market's rules."

The FAQ gives one concrete case. In Protected NFL player markets, if a player plays in the first half but not the second half or overtime and has not reached the target, the market settles at its fair price before the opening kickoff. That number is set by the exchange, not by your entry price.

Kalshi's market outcomes page says the outcome is determined "based on these rules and the information from the source". It does not address cancellation, so the contract terms attached to the individual market are where to look.

What happens to combos and parlays?

Combos make a partial settlement matter more. Kalshi's FAQ says each leg follows its underlying market's rules and the payout is the product of the leg values. Its example is a three-leg combo where two legs resolve to $1.00 and one to $0.70, which pays $0.70 per contract. The page also says that with a non-$1/$0 leg the combo "isn't simply returned."

What do real cases look like?

The best-documented recent case is the Cardi B market tied to the Super Bowl halftime show. CBS News reported on February 11, 2026 that Kalshi did not name a winner and instead settled at the last traded price before trading was paused, paying 26 cents per contract to "Yes" holders and 74 cents to "No" holders. A Kalshi spokesperson said "singing and dancing counted as a performance" under the rules, but that it was unclear whether she was singing. A trader who held "Yes" filed a complaint with the CFTC saying they received $1,300 instead of $5,000. I found no reported ruling on that complaint. CBS also reported that Polymarket's final decision was still pending at the time of writing, so the same real-world event can end up handled differently on two platforms.

A second case involves a person's death. CasinoBeats reported on March 5, 2026 that Kalshi filed a rule change with the CFTC on March 2, 2026, effective March 17, amending Rule 6.3 so that when a person dies before a contract expires, Kalshi can settle at the last traded price before the death. The article says a market on whether Ali Khamenei would be out as Supreme Leader was frozen at its last price after his death on February 28, and that Kalshi refunded fees after pausing it. Traders who expected a "Yes" payout were angry.

A third case is a mistake rather than a void. Dave Loughran wrote on August 14, 2026 that on January 7, 2026, traders reported NFL win-total positions that should have paid were not paid, and that Kalshi's first response, per reports from Discord, was to refund the original trade amount without winnings. On January 8, the article says, Kalshi reversed course and credited the difference to the full $1 payout for correct YES holders. The article notes some details rest on trader reports. A refund and a correct payout are different things.

What should you check before trading a market that could end without a winner?

Most of this fits on a short list, and you can do it in under 2 minutes.

• Find the "what if" clause. Search the rules text for the words "cancelled", "postponed", "tie", "draw", "does not play" and "unresolvable". If none appear, the rules are silent, which is itself information.
• Know the fallback value. Is it $0.50, "last fair market price", or last traded price? Those are three different outcomes, and the last two are set at the platform's discretion.
• Compute your downside at the fallback. Compare your entry price to the fallback. If you paid 85 cents for something that can settle at 50, you are carrying 35 cents of loss that has nothing to do with whether your forecast was right.
• Check for a draw option. In a soccer match market, a draw is a real outcome. Make sure the market lists it, or states what happens if it occurs.

What can prediction markets not do here?

They cannot make an ambiguous question unambiguous. A market is only as clear as its rules, and the cases above came from wording that two reasonable people read differently. For background on how odds and settlement fit together, see how market odds and resolution work.

This is one reason to start with play credits. On Ravioli, trades are made with Sense, which is free, so an ambiguous market costs you nothing but a lesson in reading rules carefully.

Ravioli is a free-to-play prediction market. You trade with Sense, which is free, and the prizes are real.

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