This market resolves to Yes if John Bolton is sentenced on October 28, 2026, and does not receive any prison time as part of his plea agreement. If the court imposes any sentence involving incarceration, this market resolves to No. Evidence will be based on official court records and verified public reporting.
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This market resolves to Yes if official streaming data confirms that UFC 324 achieved more than 6.5 million streams on Paramount+ by the time public viewership figures are announced. 'Streams' refers to unique viewership counts reported by Paramount+ or trusted media outlets. If no data is made public by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.
This market resolves to Yes if at least 5 distinct Fortune 500 companies officially announce partnerships to use TikTok’s 'Mini Dramas' feature by August 31, 2026. Qualifying announcements must come from credible sources (e.g., company press releases, official TikTok posts, or verified news outlets). Partnerships must involve the creation of branded episodic content within TikTok’s 'Minis Center' or 'Drama Center.'
This market resolves to Yes if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) publicly announces plans for a new manufacturing facility explicitly focused on AI chip production (including GPUs, AI accelerators, or related components) on or before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official TSMC communication channel, such as a press release, investor call, or SEC filing, and be reported by reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, WSJ). Announcements of general expansions unrelated to AI will not count.
This market resolves to Yes if SpaceX successfully launches a mission carrying semiconductor manufacturing pods (like those of Besxar Space Industries) as part of any payload on a Falcon 9 or other SpaceX rocket by August 31, 2026. Official confirmation from SpaceX, Besxar, or reliable news organizations will be used to determine the outcome.
This market resolves to Yes if Aroldis Chapman records at least 10 total strikeouts in relief appearances during Major League Baseball games played between July 7 and July 14, 2026, inclusive. Official MLB game statistics will determine the outcome.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Vladimir Putin officially announces his resignation or a formal transfer of presidential power before or on December 31, 2026. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from the Kremlin or verifiable reporting from credible news sources such as Reuters, AP, or BBC. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to 'No.'