Will air quality alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke persist in the U.S. past August 1, 2026?

Will the Canadian wildfire smoke cause any U.S. city to issue new air quality alerts between July 19 and July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if any U.S. city issues a new air quality alert due to wildfire smoke originating from Canada between July 19, 2026, and July 31, 2026. Official announcements by local, state, or federal agencies will be used as the resolution source.

This market resolves to Yes if public and credible reports confirm that commercial shipping traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026. Public confirmation can come from governments, international maritime organizations, or major verified news outlets. If no such reports are available by this date, the market resolves to No.

Will the far-right AfD win at least one state government leadership position in Germany by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party wins at least one state-level government leadership position (e.g., Minister-President or equivalent title in Germany) by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as German state election commissions, reputable news organizations, or official announcements. Speculation or unverified claims will not count.

Will Iran fire on another commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if credible reports or official statements confirm that Iran fires on another commercial vessel (civilian cargo or tanker) attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz between June 27, 2026, and July 31, 2026 (inclusive). 'Firing on' includes any missile, rocket, artillery, or gunfire targeting the vessel, regardless of damage inflicted. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable sources such as government agencies, independent monitors, or multiple major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, AP, or similar.

Will the details of the US-Iran peace deal be publicly released by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the full details of the US-Iran peace deal, as announced by President Trump, are publicly released by July 31, 2026. This includes the official publication of the terms agreed upon by both the US and Iran. Ambiguities or conflicting accounts will not qualify unless the official documents are made available to the public.

Will Germany officially announce the completion of its rearmament plan by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the German government publicly announces the completion of its military rearmament and modernization plan by July 31, 2026. Includes official statements or press releases confirming the rearmament has been fully achieved. News reports or statements from third-party analysts do not count as confirmation.