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This market resolves to Yes if the African Development Bank's Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) achieves $2.5 billion in financing by December 31, 2028. Confirmation will be based on official announcements or financial reports from the African Development Bank or verified news sources.
This market resolves to Yes if a major global insurance company officially adopts the coastal erosion modeling tools developed by Ocean Ledger into their risk assessment frameworks by December 31, 2026. Official adoption means a public announcement or report by the insurer about integrating Ocean Ledger's model into their systems.
This market resolves to Yes if the European Union reverses the recent rollbacks on sustainability rules, including glacier protection laws and corporate sustainability reporting directives, by December 31, 2026. Official EU legislative actions or resolutions must confirm the reinstatement of these climate regulations.
This market resolves to Yes if scientific reports published by a credible institution (such as NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or a peer-reviewed scientific journal) confirm that Jakobshavn Glacier has reached a critical tipping point by December 31, 2027. The tipping point is defined as a significant and sustained acceleration in the glacier's melt rate leading to irreversible retreat.
Will the Arctic sea ice extent be less than 4 million square kilometers in September 2026?
About this market
This market resolves to Yes if the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice in September 2026, as reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), is less than 4 million square kilometers. NSIDC typically publishes this data in early October.
Rules
- Market closes at 10/10/2026.
- Logic weighted resolution applies.
Other open markets in Climate
Will Africa's clean energy fund reach $2.5 billion in financing by the end of 2028?
This market resolves to Yes if the African Development Bank's Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) achieves $2.5 billion in financing by December 31, 2028. Confirmation will be based on official announcements or financial reports from the African Development Bank or verified news sources.
Will Ocean Ledger's coastal erosion model be adopted by a major global insurer by the end of 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if a major global insurance company officially adopts the coastal erosion modeling tools developed by Ocean Ledger into their risk assessment frameworks by December 31, 2026. Official adoption means a public announcement or report by the insurer about integrating Ocean Ledger's model into their systems.
Will the EU's rollbacks of climate regulations be reinstated by the end of 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if the European Union reverses the recent rollbacks on sustainability rules, including glacier protection laws and corporate sustainability reporting directives, by December 31, 2026. Official EU legislative actions or resolutions must confirm the reinstatement of these climate regulations.
Will Jakobshavn Glacier reach a critical tipping point by the end of 2027?
This market resolves to Yes if scientific reports published by a credible institution (such as NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or a peer-reviewed scientific journal) confirm that Jakobshavn Glacier has reached a critical tipping point by December 31, 2027. The tipping point is defined as a significant and sustained acceleration in the glacier's melt rate leading to irreversible retreat.
Will Greenpeace file for bankruptcy in the US by December 31, 2026?
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Greenpeace files for bankruptcy in the United States by December 31, 2026, as a result of the $345 million verdict against them in the Dakota Access Pipeline case. Public court records or official statements from Greenpeace or US bankruptcy courts will be used to determine the outcome.
Will Greenpeace file for bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if Greenpeace files for bankruptcy protection in the United States before December 31, 2026, as a direct consequence of the $345 million verdict against them finalized in the Dakota Access Pipeline case. Official bankruptcy filings must be reported by major news outlets or through legal documents. If no bankruptcy filing occurs by the end date, the market resolves to No.