Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if scientific reports published by a credible institution (such as NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or a peer-reviewed scientific journal) confirm that Jakobshavn Glacier has reached a critical tipping point by December 31, 2027. The tipping point is defined as a significant and sustained acceleration in the glacier's melt rate leading to irreversible retreat.

Will Greenpeace file for bankruptcy in the USA by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Greenpeace files for bankruptcy protection in the United States before December 31, 2026, as a direct consequence of the $345 million verdict against them finalized in the Dakota Access Pipeline case. Official bankruptcy filings must be reported by major news outlets or through legal documents. If no bankruptcy filing occurs by the end date, the market resolves to No.

Will 15% or more of listed Israeli companies receive a CDP climate score in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if 15% or more of the Israeli companies listed on the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) receive a climate score in 2026. The evaluation will be based on the official CDP report published at the end of 2026.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule to keep the Boulder climate case in state court by September 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the climate change-related lawsuit by the city of Boulder against Exxon Mobil and Suncore Energy remains in state court by September 2026. The decision will determine if climate lawsuits like Boulder's will continue in state courts or be moved to federal courts.

This market resolves to Yes if Somoy TV publicly announces the establishment of a dedicated Climate, Environment and Nature Desk before December 31, 2026. The announcement must be verifiable through official channels, such as a press release by Somoy TV, major news publications, or an official statement on Somoy TV's website.

This market resolves to Yes if the average summer temperature in Greenland exceeds 10°C for June through August, as recorded by the Danish Meteorological Institute, by the end of 2030.

This market resolves to Yes if, according to official reports from the International Olympic Committee or similar authoritative bodies, more than 75% of the potential Winter Olympics host locations identified in a pre-2030 study require machine-made snow to meet the conditions for holding the Games by December 31, 2030.

This market resolves to Yes if a 100-year flood event, as defined by hydrological standards, occurs in Southern Africa in 2026 and is linked to climate change factors. Verification will be based on reports from reputable sources, such as the World Meteorological Organization or peer-reviewed scientific studies.

Will the Dutch government implement legally binding emission targets for Bonaire by July 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if official government documentation or reputable news sources confirm that the Dutch government has implemented legally binding targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, for the island of Bonaire by July 31, 2027.