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Will a Democratic candidate with a negative stance on Israel win a major primary by the end of 2026?

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About this market

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a candidate running in a Democratic primary race for a House, Senate, or gubernatorial seat, who has publicly expressed a negative stance on the U.S.-Israel relationship, secures a win. A 'major primary' is defined as any primary for a state with a minimum of five electoral votes or any sitting Democratic incumbent governor or senator. Public expression of a negative stance must be verifiable through reputable news sources.

Rules

  • Market closes at 12/31/2026.
  • Logic weighted resolution applies.

Comments & Analysis

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vir
3/19/2026
Logic: 65/100

Yes, I think so. There are many democratic-leaning areas of the US with a majority muslim/anti-Israel stance.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(30%)
70/100
No Fallacies(30%)
60/100
Relevance(20%)
80/100
Logic/Emotion(20%)
50/100

Rationale:The comment makes a general claim about Democratic-leaning areas with anti-Israel stances, which is partially supported by the shift in Democratic sentiment towards Israel. However, it lacks specific evidence or examples to substantiate the claim about 'many areas.' The logic is somewhat speculative and lacks depth, leading to a moderate score in fallacies and logic/emotion balance. The relevance is fairly high as it addresses the market question directly.

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Will a Democratic candidate with a negative stance on Israel win a major primary by the end of 2026?

Cents
How many cents?
¢
You'll get18.69% of a share
Avg price54¢/share
Trading fee1¢
You'll spend10¢
If you win19¢
Your profit+9¢

Will a Democratic candidate with a negative stance on Israel win a major primary by the end of 2026?

Cents
How many cents?
¢
You'll get18.69% of a share
Avg price54¢/share
Trading fee1¢
You'll spend10¢
If you win19¢
Your profit+9¢