Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

Unofficial results show Scott Colom leading Cindy Hyde-Smith by about half a percentage point, with Mississippi state certification still pending. Resolves Yes if Mississippi certifies Colom ahead by at least 0.600 percentage points in the 2026 U.S. Senate race by December 3, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes a bill focused on reforming financial regulations related to political entities or activities, including campaign finance or lobbying, by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official congressional records and credible news sources.

Will the U.S. Congress pass a new tariff policy by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new tariff policy is passed by both houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the President by December 31, 2026. The policy must specify new tariff structures or rates different from those existing as of February 23, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the US Congress passes and the President signs into law any new legislative measures explicitly restricting the President's war powers over military operations. The market resolves to No if no such law is enacted by the given date.

This market resolves to Yes if any Democrat is officially charged with a crime related to the alleged scheme to manipulate the Alaska ballot by December 31, 2026. If no such charges are filed by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the construction of the 62-mile section of the international border wall on the Tohono O'odham Nation reservation is completed by the end of 2026, as reported by reputable news outlets or official government announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if a proposal to overhaul the Supreme Court, including adding justices or limiting their terms, is formally introduced as a bill in either the House of Representatives or the Senate and a vote is held on it by December 31, 2026. The proposal must include changes such as increasing the number of justices or altering term limits.

CBS reported that ICE was recently told to aim for about 19,000 arrests per week, while DHS said enforcement was not slowing after the midterms. Resolves Yes if an official source or major reporting confirms that the national ICE arrest target was reduced below that level by December 31, 2026.

Will new Hegseth impeachment articles be filed by January 10?

Democrats are expected to take House control in January, creating a path to revive the Hegseth impeachment fight. Resolves Yes if any member of the U.S. House formally introduces or files articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth in the 120th Congress by January 10, 2027; the old 119th Congress resolution does not count unless it is reintroduced or newly filed.