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Will the Iran conflict end by May 31, 2026?

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About this market

This market resolves to Yes if an official agreement or ceasefire is reached and publicly acknowledged by the United States and Iran, ending active combat operations by both countries by the end of May 31, 2026. Official statements from either government's defense or foreign affairs ministries or recognized international organizations will be used for confirmation.

Rules

  • Market closes at 5/31/2026.
  • Logic weighted resolution applies.

Comments & Analysis

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vir
3/19/2026
Logic: 74/100

I don't think it'll end: here's why - both sides want it to end but neither are willing to compromise. The US wants the Iranian regime to be completely obliterated and Iran wants American ambitions in the middle east to end. It's like Russia and Ukraine - neither side wants to end the war on the other's terms.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(30%)
65/100
No Fallacies(25%)
75/100
Relevance(25%)
85/100
Logic/Emotion(20%)
70/100

Rationale:The comment accurately reflects the ongoing conflict dynamics between the US and Iran, as well as the lack of compromise. However, the claim that the US wants the Iranian regime 'completely obliterated' is not directly supported by the search results, which focus on military actions rather than explicit political goals. The analogy to Russia and Ukraine is a reasonable comparison but lacks specific evidence. The comment is relevant to the market question, though it leans slightly on emotional rhetoric.

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Will the Iran conflict end by May 31, 2026?

Cents
How many cents?
¢
You'll get18.69% of a share
Avg price54¢/share
Trading fee1¢
You'll spend10¢
If you win19¢
Your profit+9¢

Will the Iran conflict end by May 31, 2026?

Cents
How many cents?
¢
You'll get18.69% of a share
Avg price54¢/share
Trading fee1¢
You'll spend10¢
If you win19¢
Your profit+9¢