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Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of any federal stalking charges by December 2026?

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About this market

This market resolves to Yes if Luigi Mangione is found guilty of at least one federal stalking charge related to the case involving the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by the end of December 2026. Any official court verdict or plea that acknowledges guilt for stalking at the federal level will determine the resolution.

Rules

  • Market closes at 12/31/2026.
  • Logic weighted resolution applies.

Comments & Analysis

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vir
2/3/2026
Logic: 58/100

Yes, likely so. Even though some people support him, which I don't think is right, the establishment is largely against Mangione: murder is always wrong. Therefore, they will try to do everything they can to convict him of as much as they can: including stalking.

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
50/100
No Fallacies(25%)
60/100
Relevance(25%)
70/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
50/100

Rationale:The comment makes unverified claims about the establishment's intentions and incorrectly associates murder with the market question, which is about stalking charges. It contains a logical fallacy by assuming that opposition to Mangione will lead to a conviction without evidence. The relevance is moderate as it addresses the market question but includes unrelated elements. The argument is more emotional than logical, focusing on personal opinions about support for Mangione.

vir
2/3/2026
Logic: 20/100

yes definitely to the moon

Logic Analysis
Fact Check(25%)
20/100
No Fallacies(25%)
20/100
Relevance(25%)
20/100
Logic/Emotion(25%)
20/100

Rationale:This comment is a low-effort, hype-only response with no factual basis or logical reasoning provided. It does not address the market question directly or provide any analysis related to Luigi Mangione's potential conviction. The scores are desaturated to reflect the lack of substantive content.

vir
2/3/2026

Yes lol too the moon

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Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of any federal stalking charges by December 2026?

Cents
How many cents?
¢
You'll get18.69% of a share
Avg price54¢/share
Trading fee1¢
You'll spend10¢
If you win19¢
Your profit+9¢

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of any federal stalking charges by December 2026?

Cents
How many cents?
¢
You'll get18.69% of a share
Avg price54¢/share
Trading fee1¢
You'll spend10¢
If you win19¢
Your profit+9¢