This market resolves to Yes if official data at the end of 2026 shows a decrease of more than 20% in Russia's total oil export revenues compared to 2025 figures. Data will be sourced from reputable international economic reports or Russian official statistics.
Comments & Analysis
They've been stable for a while now, why would they decline now? the war begin many years ago! Nothing has changed
Rationale:The comment suggests that Russia's oil export revenues have been stable and questions the likelihood of a decline. However, it lacks specific data or evidence to support the claim of stability. The argument contains a fallacy of assuming that past stability guarantees future stability without considering potential changes in global markets or geopolitical factors. The comment is relevant to the market question but lacks depth and relies on an emotional appeal to past events.