Markets
Will Iran directly strike Israel by December 1?
Yes0%No0%
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About this market
Iran has warned of expanded retaliation if attacked, while Israel is weighing possible military action. Resolves Yes if Iran directly launches missiles, drones, or other kinetic weapons at Israeli territory or Israeli military assets from November 12 through December 1, 2026; proxy attacks not directly launched by Iran do not count.
Rules
- Market closes December 1, 2026 (ET).
- Logic weighted resolution applies.
Other open markets in World News
Will Israel strike Iran by November 17?
Israel is reportedly increasing readiness for a possible attack on Iran, but no new strike decision or strike has been confirmed. Resolves Yes if Israel conducts or officially claims a kinetic military attack on targets inside Iran from November 12 through November 17, 2026; preparations, threats, cyberattacks, or strikes outside Iran do not count.
Will Russia and Ukraine exchange at least 1,000 prisoners by December 15?
After the Abu Dhabi talks, negotiators still had to set numbers for a newly agreed prisoner exchange. Resolves Yes if completed Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchanges from November 12 through December 15, 2026 include at least 1,000 living people combined across both sides.
Will Russia and Ukraine start a ceasefire by December 31?
U.S.-mediated Abu Dhabi talks produced a prisoner-swap agreement in principle but no reported peace breakthrough. Resolves Yes if Ukraine and Russia both publicly agree to a war-wide ceasefire or cessation of hostilities that begins no later than December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC; local humanitarian pauses, prisoner exchanges alone, or unilateral ceasefire statements not accepted by the other side do not count.
Will a significant storm cause over $500 million in damage in the Middle East by November 15, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if a significant storm causes damage exceeding $500 million in total across the Middle East, as reported by at least two major news outlets, by November 15, 2026. Includes infrastructure, property, and economic losses due to the storm.
Will Malaysia face UN sanctions related to the recent deportations by December 31, 2026?
This market resolves to 'Yes' if the United Nations imposes any form of sanctions (economic, diplomatic, or otherwise) on Malaysia specifically in response to its recent deportation activities, as publicly reported by reputable sources, by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market resolves to 'No.'
Will the United States and Iran reach a diplomatic deal by December 31, 2026?
This market resolves to 'Yes' if an official, publicly acknowledged diplomatic agreement is reached between the United States and Iran, addressing the current tensions and/or war, by December 31, 2026. The resolution will be based on credible reporting from major global news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or AP. If no such agreement is reached or announced by this date, the market resolves to 'No.'