Markets
Will organic molecules found in Jezero crater be confirmed as evidence of past life on Mars by August 15, 2026?
Yes0%No0%
Loading...
About this market
This market resolves to Yes if NASA or another credible scientific organization publicly confirms that the organic molecules found in Jezero crater by the Perseverance rover are definitive evidence of past life on Mars by August 15, 2026. Statements must be published in a peer-reviewed paper, official announcement, or press release. Speculative findings or evidence requiring further confirmation will not resolve this market to Yes.
Rules
- Market closes at 8/15/2026.
- Logic weighted resolution applies.
Other open markets in Science
Will NASA's New Horizons encounter the termination shock by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft is publicly confirmed to have entered the termination shock, the heliospheric boundary where solar wind slows and interacts with interstellar wind, by August 31, 2026. Public confirmation must come from NASA, the Southwest Research Institute, or a peer-reviewed scientific publication.
Will China's Tianwen-2 successfully collect samples from Kamo'oalewa by December 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if official and credible sources, such as the China National Space Administration (CNSA), confirm that Tianwen-2 has successfully collected samples from the quasi-moon Kamo'oalewa by December 31, 2026. If no success or failure is confirmed by that date, the market resolves to No.
Will the RHINE AI model contribute to a new peer-reviewed paper in a top-tier journal by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed paper is published in a top-tier journal (e.g., *Nature*, *Science*, *Astrophysical Journal*) with significant contributions from the RHINE AI model, as cited in the study, by August 31, 2026. The research must pertain to neutron star mergers or the synthesis of heavy elements.
Will the James Webb Space Telescope identify a new galaxy cluster from the cosmic web by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a major science journal publishes findings confirming the discovery of a previously undocumented galaxy cluster from the cosmic web using data from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by August 31, 2026. Such findings must be formally announced and publicly available. The market resolves to No if no such discovery is announced by the resolution date.
Will the James Webb Space Telescope confirm the discovery of a new substance on Pluto by August 15, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if official confirmation is publicly announced by NASA, the European Space Agency, or another authoritative body that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has identified and confirmed the chemical composition of a previously unknown substance on Pluto by August 15, 2026. If no confirmation or announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.
Will the James Webb Space Telescope discovery of a new molecule on Pluto or Titan be confirmed by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if any reputable scientific organization or peer-reviewed journal confirms, by August 31, 2026, that the mysterious spectral signal observed by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on Pluto or Titan corresponds to a new molecule not previously identified elsewhere in the solar system. Confirmation must be reported and publicly available in credible scientific news outlets or journal publications.