Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if official confirmation is publicly announced by NASA, the European Space Agency, or another authoritative body that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has identified and confirmed the chemical composition of a previously unknown substance on Pluto by August 15, 2026. If no confirmation or announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

Will Australia officially recognize citizen scientists' contributions in an official report by August 22, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Australian government or a major recognized scientific organization in Australia publishes an official report acknowledging the contributions of citizen scientists by August 22, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces the successful initiation of science flights for its new Earth observation missions by August 31, 2026. Relevant confirmation must come from an official NASA press release, press briefing, or updates on the official NASA.gov website.

This market resolves to Yes if by August 31, 2026, official research, based on gravitational wave detection data from 2026, identifies and confirms direct evidence of a second-generation black hole merger (a black hole created through the merger of prior black holes). Confirmation must come from a reputable source such as LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, or an internationally recognized peer-reviewed publication.

Will the unidentified object released by China's Shenlong space plane be officially identified by August 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if an official statement from a credible source (e.g., Chinese officials, U.S. Space Force, or a leading scientific organization) identifies the object released by the Shenlong space plane on or before August 31, 2026. The identification must include the object's purpose, function, or contents. Speculative or unverified claims will not count as resolution criteria.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA's Artemis II mission confirms the presence of water ice on the Moon by using its lunar reconnaissance equipment, with official confirmation by NASA through their website or press release by August 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a NASA-affiliated source publicly announces a researched, credible scientific explanation for the honeycomb patterns photographed by the Curiosity rover on Mars by September 30, 2026. Hypotheses or speculative statements will not count; the explanation must be supported by research or analysis acknowledged as credible by NASA. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is publicly made by this date.

This market resolves to Yes if Stanford Medicine or another reputable institution publicly confirms that the AI-discovered molecule, which mimics the effects of Ozempic without the side effects, receives approval to commence clinical trials by September 30, 2026. The resolution will be based on announcements from institutions, regulatory bodies, or credible science news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if a significant public policy change (federal or state law) aimed at protecting bees and addressing factors such as pesticide use or habitat destruction is enacted in the United States by September 30, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if during COP31, which is scheduled for November 2026, a major participating country or coalition announces a new substantial climate policy specifically addressing the recent acceleration in global warming, as reported by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The policy must be officially announced and publicly verified during the conference dates.