Will the Republicans win the 2026 midterms?

This market resolves to Yes if Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham, is officially declared the Republican nominee for the special election to fill Graham's Senate seat by July 26, 2026. The resolution criterion will be based on official announcements from the South Carolina Republican Party or South Carolina election authorities.

This market resolves to Yes if the Hungarian constitutional amendment to oust President Tamás Sulyok is passed by the Hungarian Parliament by July 19, 2026. If the vote does not happen by that date, or if the amendment fails to pass, the market resolves to No. The resolution will be based on official reporting by reliable international or Hungarian news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's super PAC, publicly announces or files Federal Election Commission (FEC) documentation revealing a major spending plan in support of GOP candidates for the upcoming fall elections. A 'major spending plan' is defined as a commitment of at least $50 million, either announced publicly or documented in FEC filings. If no such disclosure is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Will there be a publicly announced ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by August 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 30, 2026, there is a publicly announced ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine reported by at least two major international news outlets (e.g., AP News, BBC, Reuters). This includes any temporary or conditional ceasefire agreements covering all or part of the conflict area. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Labor Department's official July 2026 jobs report, scheduled to be released on August 2, 2026, indicates a national unemployment rate below 3.5%. Resolution will depend solely on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market resolves to Yes if the proposed federal rule to prevent hospitals from charging markups on discounted drugs for Medicare patients, as announced by the Trump administration in July 2026, is officially enacted by August 15, 2026. Official enactment refers to the formal publication of the rule in the Federal Register or confirmation by the Department of Health and Human Services.