Markets
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
Yes0%No0%
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About this market
Because Bahrain and the Strait of Hormuz sit inside the U.S.-Iran security theater, traders are watching whether Washington and Tehran avoid direct military action long enough to count as an effective pause. Resolves Yes if a continuous 14-day period with no qualifying U.S. military action against Iran is completed, with the first day of that period no later than November 22, 2026 Iran Standard Time, and otherwise resolves No.
Rules
- Market closes November 22, 2026 (ET).
- Logic weighted resolution applies.
Other open markets in World News
Will Iran directly strike Israel by December 1?
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Will Israel strike Iran by November 17?
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Will Russia and Ukraine exchange at least 1,000 prisoners by December 15?
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Will Russia and Ukraine start a ceasefire by December 31?
U.S.-mediated Abu Dhabi talks produced a prisoner-swap agreement in principle but no reported peace breakthrough. Resolves Yes if Ukraine and Russia both publicly agree to a war-wide ceasefire or cessation of hostilities that begins no later than December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC; local humanitarian pauses, prisoner exchanges alone, or unilateral ceasefire statements not accepted by the other side do not count.
Will a significant storm cause over $500 million in damage in the Middle East by November 15, 2026?
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Will Malaysia face UN sanctions related to the recent deportations by December 31, 2026?
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