Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if the official National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum announces that the 'Jimothy the Raccoon' bobblehead has sold out all its initial stock within 30 days of its official release date. Announcements via official press releases, the museum's website, or verified social media accounts will determine the result.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 30, 2026, there is a publicly announced ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine reported by at least two major international news outlets (e.g., AP News, BBC, Reuters). This includes any temporary or conditional ceasefire agreements covering all or part of the conflict area. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 30, 2026, Troy Jackson (Democratic nominee for the 2026 midterms in Maine) publicly announces a detailed and actionable statewide plan for implementing Medicare for All. This announcement must include specific policy details and key legislative or executive steps, and must be reported by a reputable news outlet or Jackson's official campaign channels. Ambiguous statements or generalized support for Medicare for All will not count.
This market resolves to Yes if public and credible reports confirm that commercial shipping traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026. Public confirmation can come from governments, international maritime organizations, or major verified news outlets. If no such reports are available by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if the fourth season of 'Reacher' ranks within the Top 10 on Prime Video's streaming service by August 31, 2026. Ranking confirmation will be based on official Prime Video announcements or credible industry sources reporting on viewership data.
This market resolves to Yes if Amazon publicly announces the groundbreaking of its Dog's Head project in Southeast Austin by August 31, 2026. Official statements, press releases, or reputable media coverage will be used to determine the outcome. If no such announcement occurs by the resolution date, this market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces the successful initiation of science flights for its new Earth observation missions by August 31, 2026. Relevant confirmation must come from an official NASA press release, press briefing, or updates on the official NASA.gov website.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's super PAC, publicly announces or files Federal Election Commission (FEC) documentation revealing a major spending plan in support of GOP candidates for the upcoming fall elections. A 'major spending plan' is defined as a commitment of at least $50 million, either announced publicly or documented in FEC filings. If no such disclosure is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin's price, as reported by Coindesk or CoinMarketCap, reaches or surpasses $69,000 at any time before the market closes on August 31, 2026. The current all-time high for Bitcoin is $68,789 (achieved in November 2021). This question is based on renewed market discussion and speculative sentiment regarding Bitcoin's potential recovery and new highs, as mentioned in recent financial news.
This market resolves to Yes if credible third-party reports (e.g., from research firms like Gartner, IDC, or similar sources) confirm that China's GLM-5.2 AI model is listed among the top 5 AI models (based on market share or adoption in commercial applications) by August 31, 2026. The ranking must be explicitly tied to commercial industry usage, as determined by such reports, and not speculative or preliminary data. Resolution criteria require publication of proper rankings or analyses from reliable sources.
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party officially includes a 'Medicare for All' policy proposal in its platform as part of its 2026 midterm election strategy. Official updates regarding the Democratic Party's platform, as publicly reported by major reputable news outlets or the Democratic Party itself, will determine resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) makes an official recommendation, announcement, or guideline by August 31, 2026, advocating for the reclassification of Grade Group 1 prostate cancer (the earliest and lowest-risk form of the disease) as a precancerous condition. Any such confirmation must be made publicly on the CDC's website, press releases, or official communications. If no such announcement is made by August 31, 2026, this market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) publicly announces plans for a new manufacturing facility explicitly focused on AI chip production (including GPUs, AI accelerators, or related components) on or before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official TSMC communication channel, such as a press release, investor call, or SEC filing, and be reported by reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, WSJ). Announcements of general expansions unrelated to AI will not count.
This market resolves to Yes if the WHO's Europe Regional Office publicly announces the finalization and publication of its new digital health strategy by August 31, 2026. The resolution will be based on official and verifiable announcements from the WHO Regional Office for Europe or relevant trusted media sources. If no announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement of any collaboration (e.g., music, film, or public project) involving Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau is made by August 31, 2026. The announcement must be made by a credible source (e.g., official social media accounts, press releases, or major news outlets). For clarity, a TikTok video without explicit confirmation of a collaboration does NOT count.
This market resolves to Yes if Microsoft officially announces, via press release, earnings call, or a similar credible public communication, that it plans to replace both ChatGPT and Claude with China's Kimi K3 for AI-related or operational purposes by August 31, 2026. Any unofficial statements, leaks, or rumors will not determine resolution. The resolution source must be verifiable.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA's Artemis II mission confirms the presence of water ice on the Moon by using its lunar reconnaissance equipment, with official confirmation by NASA through their website or press release by August 31, 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces or confirms, through an official communication, press release, or peer-reviewed study, that the recently discovered honeycomb-like patterns on Mars are of biological origin (e.g., linked to past microbial or organic life) by August 31, 2026. If no such confirmation is made or if NASA confirms the patterns are of non-biological origin by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if an official statement from a credible source (e.g., Chinese officials, U.S. Space Force, or a leading scientific organization) identifies the object released by the Shenlong space plane on or before August 31, 2026. The identification must include the object's purpose, function, or contents. Speculative or unverified claims will not count as resolution criteria.
This market resolves to Yes if the Israeli Health Ministry officially proposes significant new legislative measures targeting smoking and e-cigarette use in Israel by August 31, 2026. 'Significant' refers to measures directly impacting legal smoking age, banning specific products, or introducing substantial regulations. The proposal must be publicly announced by the Health Ministry.
This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, a publicly verifiable announcement is made that ChatGPT or another generative AI tool officially replaces a major Wall Street firm analyst role (e.g., research analyst or similar position) as a core component of their service delivery. Public announcements must come from the firm itself or credible financial/technology media outlets. Speculative opinion pieces or unverified reports will not count for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) officially reports by August 31, 2026, that the cause of the Kenmore Air seaplane crash near Sucia Island was related to weather conditions. The outcome will be determined based on an official statement or report released publicly by the NTSB.
This market resolves to Yes if a lawsuit publicly supported by or filed on behalf of Donald Trump or his administration officials is filed by August 31, 2026, to challenge the outcome of any 2024 U.S. Senate race. Official documentation or a direct statement from Trump's camp will be required for confirmation. The market resolves to No if no such lawsuit is filed by this date.
This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially approves at least three new drug treatments following its recent leadership change by August 31, 2026. The approval decisions must be publicly announced by this date.