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Spain General Election Winner?
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About this market
Spain’s housing agenda is becoming an election issue as Sánchez’s PSOE faces pressure from the PP and the far-right Vox ahead of the November 2026 general election. Resolves to the party that wins the greatest number of seats in Spain’s Congress of Deputies in the November 29, 2026 legislative election.
Rules
- Market closes November 29, 2026 (ET).
- This is a multi-outcome market. All outcome probabilities sum to 100%.
- One outcome will be selected as the winner at resolution.
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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
The key coalition question is whether the conservative PP and far-right Vox together can win enough seats to control Spain’s Congress and reshape or block housing policy. Resolves Yes if PP and Vox win a combined 176 or more seats in the Congress of Deputies in the November 29, 2026 election, and No otherwise.
Will COP31 call to transition away from fossil fuels by November 21?
COP31 negotiators are arguing over whether the final Antalya outcome will explicitly address coal, oil and gas. Resolves Yes if an adopted COP31 final decision or cover text calls for transitioning away from fossil fuels, phasing out fossil fuels, or phasing down fossil fuels; narrower language about coal only, renewables only, or emissions reductions without fossil fuels does not count.
Will Colom's certified margin be at least 0.6 points by December 3?
Unofficial results show Scott Colom leading Cindy Hyde-Smith by about half a percentage point, with Mississippi state certification still pending. Resolves Yes if Mississippi certifies Colom ahead by at least 0.600 percentage points in the 2026 U.S. Senate race by December 3, 2026.
Will ICE lower its arrest target by December 31?
CBS reported that ICE was recently told to aim for about 19,000 arrests per week, while DHS said enforcement was not slowing after the midterms. Resolves Yes if an official source or major reporting confirms that the national ICE arrest target was reduced below that level by December 31, 2026.
Will new Hegseth impeachment articles be filed by January 10?
Democrats are expected to take House control in January, creating a path to revive the Hegseth impeachment fight. Resolves Yes if any member of the U.S. House formally introduces or files articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth in the 120th Congress by January 10, 2027; the old 119th Congress resolution does not count unless it is reintroduced or newly filed.