Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) publicly announces plans for a new manufacturing facility explicitly focused on AI chip production (including GPUs, AI accelerators, or related components) on or before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official TSMC communication channel, such as a press release, investor call, or SEC filing, and be reported by reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, WSJ). Announcements of general expansions unrelated to AI will not count.
This market resolves to Yes if the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) successfully determines the neutrino mass ordering by August 31, 2026. Determination would typically be announced through a published scientific paper or official statement from the JUNO Collaboration or the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
This market resolves to Yes if Netflix publicly announces (via official press release, blog post, or similar) that the AI tools developed by InterPositive, the AI startup acquired by Netflix, will be used in the creation of a new original series by August 31, 2026. Announcements about films, documentaries, or non-original content will not count. The market resolves based on publicly available information.
This market resolves to Yes if at least one new cancer research paper, flagged by the AI system as potentially fraudulent, is officially retracted by a credible journal or institution by August 31, 2026. The decision must be publicly confirmed by a trusted entity such as the journal involved, the researchers, or a prominent institution. Fraudulent 'paper mill' output refers to suspected fabricated or manipulated research identified in the referenced ScienceDaily article.
This market resolves to Yes if Chinese AI firm DeepSeek announces a new product or service explicitly targeting U.S. enterprise customers by August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official DeepSeek source, such as a press release, corporate blog post, or verified announcement via their official channels. General statements about global product availability without a specific focus on U.S. enterprises will not qualify.
This market resolves to Yes if any recognized scientific observatory reports a verified observation of a naked singularity before or on August 31, 2026. The observation must be published in a peer-reviewed journal or announced by a major scientific organization.
This market resolves to Yes if Mohamed Salah officially transfers to any club within the Saudi Arabian Professional League by the start of the 2026/27 football season. All official announcements from the Saudi Arabian Professional League or the involved football clubs will be considered for verification. The market closes prior to the start of the new season.
This market resolves to Yes if Mason Mount is officially transferred to a football club outside the English Premier League by the end of the 2026 summer transfer window, which is typically on September 1st, 2026. Official announcements by the clubs involved will be used as the source for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if the US FDA grants approval for a COVID booster vaccine specifically targeting cardiovascular complications associated with the virus by September 2026. The announcement of approval must be publicly available and verifiable through official US FDA communication channels.
This market resolves to Yes if Yan Diomande completes a transfer to Liverpool Football Club by the FIFA transfer deadline on September 1, 2026. The outcome will be determined by official announcements from Liverpool FC or other reputable sports news outlets.
This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement or release indicates that Taylor Swift collaborates on a new song with Randy Newman by September 1, 2026. Collaborations include any new track where both artists contribute either writing, singing, or producing vocals/instruments.
This market resolves to Yes if Kane Williamson, who announced his retirement from international cricket on June 14, 2026, returns to play a recognized international cricket match before or on September 1, 2026. The result will be determined based on official announcements by the New Zealand cricket board or international cricket organizing bodies.
This market resolves to Yes if Russian territorial gains in Ukraine between July 28, 2026, and September 1, 2026, are less than 10 square miles, according to publicly available reports from reputable sources such as OSINT groups or international media. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if the 2026 Aflac Kickoff Game between Auburn and Baylor is played on September 5, 2026, as currently scheduled. The market will resolve to No if the game is canceled, rescheduled to another date, or otherwise does not take place on September 5, 2026. Significant delays on the same day (e.g., weather delaying kickoff by a few hours) will still resolve to Yes as long as the game begins later that day.
This market resolves to Yes if San Francisco 49ers' head coach Kyle Shanahan is confirmed to be fully participating without restrictions in the team's first regular-season game of the 2026 NFL season despite his recent injuries sustained in a car crash.
This market resolves to Yes if Alfie Hewett and Gordon Reid win the wheelchair doubles title at the 2026 US Open. The US Open wheelchair doubles final is scheduled to take place on September 10, 2026. If they do not win or the tournament is canceled, the market resolves to No.
Will the Detroit Lions' first-round pick Blake Miller start in their first 2026 regular-season game?
This market resolves to Yes if Blake Miller, selected by the Detroit Lions in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, starts in their first regular-season game of the 2026 NFL season.
This market resolves to Yes if Apple's September 2026 event, typically held for unveiling new products, reveals that the iPhone 18 Pro includes a redesign of the Dynamic Island feature as per recent leaks. Resolution will be based on official announcements or widely reported and credible tech news outlets confirming the redesign.
This market resolves to Yes if Darline Graham is declared the winner of the South Carolina Republican special primary for the Senate seat on September 13, 2026. The resolution will be based on official primary election results.
This market resolves to Yes if Carlos Alcaraz wins at least one more Grand Slam tournament (French Open, Wimbledon, or US Open) in the year 2026 following his Australian Open victory. Official tournament results will be used to determine the outcome.
This market resolves to Yes if an official and significant diplomatic agreement between Russia and North Korea is publicly announced by either or both countries before September 15, 2026. 'Significant' is defined as any agreement related to trade, military, or an equivalent substantive issue.
This market resolves to Yes if President Trump's approval rating, according to CNN's poll, falls below 30% on any date before or on September 15, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party officially announces its endorsement of congressional term limits by September 15, 2026. The endorsement must be confirmed through an official party statement, press release, or announcement by Democratic leadership.
This market resolves to Yes if an officially operational A.I. data center is announced or launched in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India, by September 15, 2026. The announcement must come from a verifiable source, such as a press release, government statement, or trusted news reporting. If no announcement occurs by this date, the market resolves to No.