Markets

This market resolves to Yes if global spending on cloud infrastructure services exceeds $500 billion by the end of 2026, according to industry reports or reliable public financial data on cloud spending.

This market resolves to Yes if Hub Group announces and officially restates its financials for any quarter of 2026 by December 31, 2026. Any official announcements or filings by Hub Group regarding a restatement will be considered for resolution.

Will the price of Bitcoin drop below $50,000 by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $50,000 on any respected crypto exchange by December 31, 2026. The resolution source will be CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, or another major exchange as necessary.

This market resolves to Yes if the acquisition of ATG Entertainment by MARI receives all necessary regulatory approvals by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if a proposal to overhaul the Supreme Court, including adding justices or limiting their terms, is formally introduced as a bill in either the House of Representatives or the Senate and a vote is held on it by December 31, 2026. The proposal must include changes such as increasing the number of justices or altering term limits.

This market resolves to Yes if the total global cryptocurrency market capitalization, as tracked by CoinGecko, reaches $4 trillion or more at any point before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. If this milestone is not achieved by this date, the market will resolve to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Savannah Guthrie continues to be a co-anchor of the 'Today' show without interruption through December 31, 2026. Any official announcements of her departure or a replacement prior to this date will resolve the market to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the newly developed pancreatic cancer therapy, which showed long-lasting tumor regression in mice, advances to human clinical trials by December 31, 2026. Evidence of advancement is considered from reputable sources such as official announcements from involved research institutions or clinical trial registries.

Will the microwave frying technique be commercially adopted for mass-produced french fries by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a major fast-food chain or frozen french fry manufacturer publicly confirms the use of the microwave frying technique described by Pawan Singh Takhar and team for mass-producing french fries. Confirmation must be reported by a credible news source.

Will Apple maintain its workforce stability through 2026 despite AI industry volatility?

This market resolves to Yes if Apple does not undergo significant layoffs or major workforce reductions in 2026, amidst AI-driven industry restructuring. Publicly available reports or official statements will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if Alibaba's XuanTie C950 CPU, developed on the RISC-V architecture, is commercially deployed in any AI application by December 31, 2026. Commercial deployment should be confirmed through official announcements by Alibaba or relevant industry reports.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issues a formal antitrust complaint against the merger of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) and Paramount by the end of December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on official announcements or documents confirming the filing of such a complaint. This market acknowledges DOJ's intensified probe as reported by multiple sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the cryptocurrency Pepeto achieves a market capitalization of at least $50 million by December 31, 2026. The market cap will be verified using reliable cryptocurrency market data sources.

Will the adoption rate for the new COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. reach at least 50% by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if official data from the CDC or a similar authoritative source shows that at least 50% of the eligible U.S. population has received one of the FDA-approved 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines by December 31, 2026. If data shows that less than 50% have been vaccinated by this date, the market resolves to 'No'.

This market resolves to Yes if there is official confirmation of a human clinical trial using genetically modified hookworms to deliver medications or antibodies inside the human body by the end of 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Bally's secures new financing through equity sales, asset monetization, or other means by the end of 2026 to ensure its continued operations. This includes any publicly announced financing agreements that are finalized and deemed sufficient by financial analysts and the company itself to overcome its financial difficulties.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Texas Governor Greg Abbott lifts the suspension on state approvals for new data center power grid connections before December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

This market resolves to Yes if official reports from Eurostat confirm that the Eurozone inflation rate exceeds 3% for any month in Q4 2026 (October, November, or December). The data must be publicly released and verifiable by official Eurostat publications.

This market resolves to Yes if any S&P 500 company receives an 'A' rating in the Climate Action category from the CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project) for the first time in its history, by December 31, 2026. Previously rated companies achieving 'A' ratings again will not count towards this outcome. Verification will be based on official announcements from CDP.

Will a major announcement about the next-gen Xbox occur by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a major announcement from Microsoft, AMD, or an affiliated representative specifically mentioning new features, release details, or official launch plans of the next-gen Xbox console is made publicly available by December 31, 2026.

Will Russia's oil export revenues decrease by more than 20% in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if official data at the end of 2026 shows a decrease of more than 20% in Russia's total oil export revenues compared to 2025 figures. Data will be sourced from reputable international economic reports or Russian official statistics.

This market resolves to Yes if Insight Health has publicly announced the successful scaling of its clinical AI agents by the end of 2026. Evidence can include official press releases, company announcements, or credible news reports confirming the expansion and integration of these AI tools into healthcare systems as intended with their recent $11M funding raise.

This market resolves to Yes if any public relations firm publicly reports a market share increase of at least 5% due to digital PR strategies by December 2026. Market share increases must be based on data from a third-party research firm or financial disclosures.

Will Google DeepMind close the AI performance gap with OpenAI by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a credible and widely recognized source, such as a major tech publication or an industry report, confirms that Google DeepMind's AI models match or exceed the performance of comparable models from OpenAI by December 31, 2026.