Markets

This market resolves to Yes if Alibaba's XuanTie C950 CPU, developed on the RISC-V architecture, is commercially deployed in any AI application by December 31, 2026. Commercial deployment should be confirmed through official announcements by Alibaba or relevant industry reports.

This market resolves to Yes if Savannah Guthrie continues to be a co-anchor of the 'Today' show without interruption through December 31, 2026. Any official announcements of her departure or a replacement prior to this date will resolve the market to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the lawsuit filed by the coalition of minority-owned bodegas and supermarkets results in stopping, invalidating, or indefinitely delaying the NYC plan to build city-run grocery stores before December 31, 2026. Any court decision or settlement that prevents the stores from being established by this date will constitute a 'Yes' outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if Insight Health has publicly announced the successful scaling of its clinical AI agents by the end of 2026. Evidence can include official press releases, company announcements, or credible news reports confirming the expansion and integration of these AI tools into healthcare systems as intended with their recent $11M funding raise.

Will the adoption rate for the new COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. reach at least 50% by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if official data from the CDC or a similar authoritative source shows that at least 50% of the eligible U.S. population has received one of the FDA-approved 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines by December 31, 2026. If data shows that less than 50% have been vaccinated by this date, the market resolves to 'No'.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces new detailed scientific findings specifically related to Jupiter's core based on data from the Juno mission by December 31, 2026.

Will Bank of America's settlement with Epstein accusers be finalized by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Bank of America finalizes a settlement agreement with the Epstein accusers by December 31, 2026. A settlement is considered finalized if it is publicly announced as such and no further steps remain for implementation, such as court approval or additional negotiations. This market resolves to No if the settlement is not finalized by this date or if the negotiations fail entirely.

This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes a bill focused on reforming financial regulations related to political entities or activities, including campaign finance or lobbying, by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official congressional records and credible news sources.

Will the United Nations impose new sanctions on China due to its Uyghur policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the United Nations implements new sanctions on China that are officially attributed to its treatment of Uyghurs. The determination will be based on credible reports from major international news organizations and official UN announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if Novartis publicly announces the development of at least one therapeutic antibody using Chai Discovery's AI platform (e.g., Chai-3 model) by December 31, 2026. The announcement must come through official company press releases, news articles, or public disclosures. If no such announcement is made by the resolution date, this market resolves to No.

Will the South African National Space Agency successfully launch a satellite by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the South African National Space Agency (Sansa) officially launches a satellite into orbit by December 31, 2026. Given the recent concerns about the governance and funding challenges facing the agency, this market tests the capability of Sansa to overcome these hurdles.

Will hospital price caps be implemented in at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least three U.S. states enact legislation that implements price caps on hospital services. The resolution will be based on official state legislative records confirming the enactment of such caps.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, NASA's Juno mission announces the discovery of a new feature in Jupiter's atmosphere through official NASA publications or press releases. The feature must be a previously unobserved characteristic or phenomenon distinct from existing knowledge.

This market resolves to Yes if Jared Isaacman, in his capacity as NASA Administrator, announces a formal collaboration with a European space agency by December 31, 2026. A formal collaboration should be a publicized agreement involving joint missions, projects, or initiatives. Announcements must come from NASA or the European space agency in question to be considered valid.

This market resolves to Yes if 'Project Hail Mary' generates more than $800 million in global box office revenue by December 31, 2026. Box office data will be confirmed through reliable box office tracking sites like Box Office Mojo.

This market resolves to Yes if any major sports league (such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, or Premier League) announces a policy requiring their finals or championship games to be broadcast on free-to-air television in addition to any paywalled streaming services by the end of 2026. The announcement must come explicitly from the league itself, not from individual broadcasters.

This market resolves to Yes if the authorities officially announce the solving of the 12-tonne KitKat bar theft that occurred in 2026, including identifying the responsible parties, by December 31, 2026. If no official announcement is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Somoy TV publicly announces the establishment of a dedicated Climate, Environment and Nature Desk before December 31, 2026. The announcement must be verifiable through official channels, such as a press release by Somoy TV, major news publications, or an official statement on Somoy TV's website.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, Hub Group receives a regulatory fine due to the restatement of their financials for certain quarters of 2025. Evidence will be based on official announcements from regulatory bodies or Hub Group's public filings.

This market resolves to Yes if Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi successfully implements the proposed tax cuts by December 31, 2026. This will be verified by official announcements or publications from the Japanese government confirming the enactment of these tax policies.

This market resolves to Yes if a publicly documented and verifiable prototype of a quantum compass utilizing phonon lasers, as described by researchers at the University of Rochester and Rochester Institute of Technology, is demonstrated by December 31, 2026. The demonstration must be covered by reputable science or technology news outlets, and details should be accessible to the public.

This market resolves to Yes if News Corporation publicly announces the completion of an acquisition of a major digital real estate company by December 31, 2026. A major digital real estate company is defined as one with annual revenues exceeding $200 million. The announcement must come from official News Corp communications, such as press releases or financial filings.

This market resolves to Yes if Oracle publicly announces a strategic partnership specifically centered around AI development or infrastructure with a tech firm based in a Middle Eastern country by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made through a credible and verifiable source such as Oracle's press release or a reputable news outlet.

Will Microsoft's new glass data storage method be publicly demonstrated by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Microsoft publicly demonstrates its glass data storage technology, as described in the TweakTown article, by December 31, 2026. A public demonstration must be confirmed by a credible news source or official Microsoft announcement. The demonstration should showcase the technology's capability to store data on borosilicate glass.