Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if a 100-year flood event, as defined by hydrological standards, occurs in Southern Africa in 2026 and is linked to climate change factors. Verification will be based on reports from reputable sources, such as the World Meteorological Organization or peer-reviewed scientific studies.
This market resolves to Yes if Tesla announces the completion of a merger with either SpaceX or xAI by December 31, 2026. Official announcements from Tesla or regulatory filings will be used to determine the resolution of this market.
This market resolves to Yes if Instagram completely stops using the PG-13 rating reference in its posts, as per their agreement with the Motion Picture Association, by December 31, 2026. The decision will be based on an official statement from Meta or confirmation from a reliable media source.
This market resolves to Yes if Oracle manages to raise a minimum of $45 billion in aggregate from debt and equity markets by December 31, 2026. Confirmation will be based on official financial statements or announcements from Oracle at the close of the fiscal year 2026. If Oracle announces that they have raised less than $45 billion by the end of 2026, the market will resolve to No. If no clear announcement is made by the closing date, and there is no verifiable third-party confirmation, the market will resolve to No.
This market resolves to Yes if Luigi Mangione is found guilty of at least one federal stalking charge related to the case involving the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by the end of December 2026. Any official court verdict or plea that acknowledges guilt for stalking at the federal level will determine the resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if verifiable reports by a major news organization confirm that references, including mention or inclusion, to individuals within the Epstein Files exceed 10 million by December 31, 2026. 'References' must be clearly documented in the context of released file information, covering any individual discussed in news sources.
This market resolves to Yes if M EVO GLOBAL ACQUISITION CORP II announces an official merger or acquisition with a company primarily involved in the critical minerals sector by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be officially confirmed through a press release or a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
This market resolves to Yes if the draft law proposing restrictions on Steam and the Epic Games Store by the Ministry of Family and Social Services is officially enacted in Turkey by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on reports from reliable news sources confirming the enactment.
This market resolves to Yes if Oracle's NetSuite AI Connector Service reports a 20% or greater increase in the number of corporate clients by December 31, 2026, as confirmed by Oracle's official financial statements or press releases.
This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, any prominent AI tool used for interpreting patient medical records becomes officially recognized as HIPAA-compliant. Verification will be based on public announcements from a recognized regulatory body or a statement from the tool developer confirming HIPAA compliance.
This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, a publicly verified and commercially available AI-based chip is demonstrated to reduce energy consumption in data centers by 10% or more compared to conventional methods, as evidenced by reputable sources such as scientific journals, industry reports, or major news outlets.
This market resolves to Yes if the finalized 2027 US defense budget, as enacted by Congress and signed into law by the President, includes $65.8 billion allocated specifically for shipbuilding. The resolution will be based on the official budget documentation released by the US government for the fiscal year 2027.
This market resolves to Yes if MLG Oz publicly reports generating over A$30 million in annual revenue from its contracts with Gruyere Mining Company by December 31, 2026. Sources will include official financial statements, press releases, or credible business news reports.
This market resolves to Yes if a judicial review is initiated by any party involved in the rival bid for the Telegraph against the UK government's decision to allow the Daily Mail owner to proceed with the takeover by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official court records or credible news reports confirming such a review has been filed.
This market resolves to Yes if the Jordanian Parliament maintains the removal of the word 'Israel' from their official parliamentary minutes until December 31, 2026. Any official reversal of this decision will result in a No resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if PayPal announces an acquisition by another company on or before December 31, 2026. An acquisition is defined as a public announcement that another company has agreed to acquire PayPal, either fully or as a controlling stake. Official announcements from PayPal or the acquiring company will serve as confirmation.
This market resolves to Yes if Crypto.com receives full and unconditional approval for a national trust bank charter from U.S. regulators by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from Crypto.com or U.S. regulatory authorities.
This market resolves to Yes if the ice shelf in front of West Antarctica's 'Doomsday Glacier' disintegrates by December 31, 2026. Confirmation must come from a credible source such as a scientific journal or a major news outlet reporting on the event.
This market resolves to Yes if a method for designing carbon materials using AI at the exascale, as referenced in recent scientific developments, is implemented in a commercial product or process by December 31, 2026. Public announcements or credible reports will serve as verification for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if IBM, INFQ, or QBTS publicly demonstrates a quantum computer that is deemed commercially relevant by December 31, 2026, as per Trump's executive orders aiming for such a technological achievement by 2028. The determination of 'commercially relevant' will be based on a consensus of leading tech media reports and expert opinions.
This market resolves to Yes if Them, under the new ownership of Equalpride, reports or is verified by a reliable source to have surpassed 2 million monthly unique visitors by December 31, 2026. Verification can come from industry analytics reports, a public statement from Equalpride, or coverage by accredited media outlets.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Greenpeace files for bankruptcy in the United States by December 31, 2026, as a result of the $345 million verdict against them in the Dakota Access Pipeline case. Public court records or official statements from Greenpeace or US bankruptcy courts will be used to determine the outcome.
This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling by December 31, 2026, that upholds the legality of a federal ban on assault weapons. The decision must explicitly address a federal assault weapons ban in place and conclude that it is constitutional. If no such ruling is issued, or if the Court rules against the ban's constitutionality, the market resolves to No. Any related rulings must be publicly available and verifiable through official Supreme Court records.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if Vladimir Putin officially announces his resignation or a formal transfer of presidential power before or on December 31, 2026. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from the Kremlin or verifiable reporting from credible news sources such as Reuters, AP, or BBC. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to 'No.'