Markets

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Vladimir Putin officially announces his resignation or a formal transfer of presidential power before or on December 31, 2026. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements from the Kremlin or verifiable reporting from credible news sources such as Reuters, AP, or BBC. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to 'No.'

This market resolves to Yes if Pepeto announces reaching or exceeding $20 million in presale capital by December 31, 2026. Confirmation should come from an official announcement by Pepeto or a credible financial news source.

This market resolves to Yes if the New York State legislature passes a law enabling non-citizens to vote in municipal elections across the state of New York by December 31, 2026. The resolution will be determined based on official legislative records or credible news reports confirming the passage of such a bill.

This market resolves to Yes if a formal charge against Jack Lang, France’s former Culture Minister, is filed in connection with the Epstein-linked tax fraud investigation by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on credible public records or official announcements confirming such charges.

Will Tesla merge with SpaceX and xAI by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Tesla officially announces a merger, acquisition, or any formal consolidation with SpaceX and xAI by December 31, 2026. The confirmation must come from an official press release or a regulatory filing by any of the involved companies. Partial or informal announcements will not qualify.

Will PayPal agree to a takeover deal by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if PayPal publicly announces that it has agreed to a formal takeover or acquisition deal with another company by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made on PayPal's official website, press release, or a major financial news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly announces her candidacy for the 2028 presidential election by the end of 2026. Announcements through credible news sources or official public statements will be accepted as valid. The market will resolve to No if no such announcement is made by the resolution date.

Will a new U.S. federal law addressing climate change be enacted by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new federal law specifically addressing climate change is signed into law by the President of the United States by the end of 2026. The law must explicitly target the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or implement measures to combat climate change and cannot simply be an amendment to existing legislation. Reports from reputable sources such as the U.S. Congress or recognized news outlets will be used for verification.

Will Mindy West's leadership result in Murphy USA being ranked in CSP's Top 3 by store count in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Murphy USA is listed among the Top 3 convenience-store chains by store count in CSP's 2026 annual ranking. The outcome will be determined based on Roswell CSP Daily News's official report on the ranking, projected to be published by the end of 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the US Senate successfully passes a bill that permits stablecoins to offer rewards by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official Senate records and public announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if Grosvenor's Vista consultancy publicly announces the inclusion of autonomous vehicle consulting services by December 31, 2026. The determination will be based on official press releases, announcements on Grosvenor's website, or verified news sources.

Will the Federation of American Scientists launch a major climate-specific initiative endorsed by at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Federation of American Scientists' new initiative on climate leads to a recognized climate-specific program or policy that is publicly endorsed and implemented by at least three different U.S. state governments by December 31, 2026. Official press releases or announcements from the states or the Federation of American Scientists will be used for verification.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least 10 major universities publicly announce and implement a new economics curriculum influenced by the Rethinking Economics movement, incorporating more pluralistic and ethically conscientious frameworks as described in recent articles. Confirmation will be based on verifiable announcements from the universities or media coverage.

This market resolves to Yes if official publicly released versions of the Epstein Files contain over one million mentions of Donald Trump's name as verified by credible sources by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if, by the end of December 31, 2026, researchers publicly demonstrate an operational organic solar cell utilizing the newly observed ultrafast charge transfer mechanism involving electron 'catapults' in molecular interfaces, as described in the 2026 study on advanced solar materials.

Will Apple's 'citrus' MacBook Neo become a top 5 bestseller in its segment by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Apple's 'citrus' MacBook Neo is listed as a top 5 bestseller in the 'budget laptops' segment by a major market analytics company or industry report by the end of 2026. Valid sources may include Gartner, IDC, or similar reputable market research firms.

This market resolves to Yes if official healthcare reports indicate a 20% or higher increase in the number of UK patients opting to pay for certain healthcare services out of pocket compared to baseline numbers from prior years, by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Britney Spears releases a new music single, either as a solo artist or as a featured artist, on or before December 31, 2026. The release must be available on major music streaming platforms like Spotify or Apple Music.

This market resolves to Yes if any major scientific journal officially announces the adoption of 'peer replication' as a standard practice for validating research by December 31, 2026. Peer replication refers to the verification of scientific studies through independent reproduction of their experiments, to enhance the reliability of published research.

Will the United States and Iran finalize a new nuclear agreement by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a formal and publicly acknowledged new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran is signed and announced by December 31, 2026. The agreement must be confirmed by reliable sources such as government announcements or major international news outlets. If no such agreement is reached and announced by the specified date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, President Donald Trump proposes a new tariff plan specifically to Congress, following the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his previous global tariffs. The proposal must be publicly documented and verified through credible news sources.

Will the U.S. Congress pass a new tariff policy by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new tariff policy is passed by both houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the President by December 31, 2026. The policy must specify new tariff structures or rates different from those existing as of February 23, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Union officially enacts a new climate adaptation policy, specifically addressing flooding risks, by December 31, 2026. The enactment must be an official policy adopted by the European governing bodies and confirmed through reputable news sources or official EU releases.

This market resolves to Yes if the total value of mergers and acquisitions in the sports industry exceeds €3 billion by the end of 2026, according to a publicly accessible report from a reputable financial analysis firm such as Oaklins or a similar entity.