Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the US Federal Reserve does not change the interest rates in any of their meetings through December 2026. This is based on expectations from Goldman Sachs that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.

This market resolves to Yes if Insight Health has publicly announced the successful scaling of its clinical AI agents by the end of 2026. Evidence can include official press releases, company announcements, or credible news reports confirming the expansion and integration of these AI tools into healthcare systems as intended with their recent $11M funding raise.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the cost of semaglutide (brands including Wegovy and Ozempic) is available for purchase at below $10 per month in at least five low-income countries, as reported by a reputable source such as the World Health Organization or a major pharmaceutical company report.

This market resolves to Yes if a published report or announcement verifies that a quantum chemistry calculation has been performed significantly faster than previously recorded times, using a new or updated software package developed before the end of 2026. The resolution will be based on credible sources such as scientific publications, company press releases, or other authoritative announcements.

Will the adoption rate for the new COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. reach at least 50% by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if official data from the CDC or a similar authoritative source shows that at least 50% of the eligible U.S. population has received one of the FDA-approved 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines by December 31, 2026. If data shows that less than 50% have been vaccinated by this date, the market resolves to 'No'.

Will the U.S. government ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. government officially enacts legislation banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes. News reports and official government announcements will be used to resolve this market.

This market resolves to Yes if the 'Harry Potter' series debut, premiering on HBO in December 2026, garners over 10 million viewers within the first week of its release according to official HBO viewership statistics.

Will Jordan's Parliament permanently remove 'Israel' from official discourse by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the Jordanian Parliament has officially announced that it will permanently cease to mention 'Israel' in its official discourse or records, as proposed by MP Abdul Nasser Khasawneh. Verification will be based on official statements or reports from reputable sources confirming the decision.

This market resolves to Yes if the Durham Arts Council receives a single grant worth more than $500,000 by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements or releases from Durham Arts Council and confirmed by reputable news sources.

Will Bank of America's settlement with Epstein accusers be finalized by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Bank of America finalizes a settlement agreement with the Epstein accusers by December 31, 2026. A settlement is considered finalized if it is publicly announced as such and no further steps remain for implementation, such as court approval or additional negotiations. This market resolves to No if the settlement is not finalized by this date or if the negotiations fail entirely.

This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announces a full review of the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger involving Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and Tencent investments by the end of 2026. The decision must be publicly reported by credible news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, there is a publicly acknowledged event where Bitcoin's cryptographic security is verified as compromised by quantum computing technology.

This market resolves to Yes if any new documents not previously released, implicating Bill Gates in Jeffrey Epstein's criminal activities, are made publicly available by December 31, 2026. The documents should be officially acknowledged or reported by a reputable news source.

This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes a bill focused on reforming financial regulations related to political entities or activities, including campaign finance or lobbying, by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official congressional records and credible news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if Floyd Mayweather participates in a sanctioned professional boxing match that is not an exhibition bout by the end of December 31, 2026. Exhibition matches and any unsanctioned fights will not fulfill the criteria for this market.

Will the United Nations impose new sanctions on China due to its Uyghur policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the United Nations implements new sanctions on China that are officially attributed to its treatment of Uyghurs. The determination will be based on credible reports from major international news organizations and official UN announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if Novartis publicly announces the development of at least one therapeutic antibody using Chai Discovery's AI platform (e.g., Chai-3 model) by December 31, 2026. The announcement must come through official company press releases, news articles, or public disclosures. If no such announcement is made by the resolution date, this market resolves to No.

Will the South African National Space Agency successfully launch a satellite by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the South African National Space Agency (Sansa) officially launches a satellite into orbit by December 31, 2026. Given the recent concerns about the governance and funding challenges facing the agency, this market tests the capability of Sansa to overcome these hurdles.

Will Bitcoin price exceed $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin's price exceeds $100,000 at any point before or on December 31, 2026, based on verified data from major exchanges like Coinbase or Binance.

Will the U.S. repeal the future Medicaid spending cuts by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Congress passes legislation to repeal the future Medicaid spending cuts as outlined in recent debates, by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, NASA's Juno mission announces the discovery of a new feature in Jupiter's atmosphere through official NASA publications or press releases. The feature must be a previously unobserved characteristic or phenomenon distinct from existing knowledge.

Will hospital price caps be implemented in at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least three U.S. states enact legislation that implements price caps on hospital services. The resolution will be based on official state legislative records confirming the enactment of such caps.

This market resolves to Yes if Jared Isaacman, in his capacity as NASA Administrator, announces a formal collaboration with a European space agency by December 31, 2026. A formal collaboration should be a publicized agreement involving joint missions, projects, or initiatives. Announcements must come from NASA or the European space agency in question to be considered valid.

This market resolves to Yes if Bill Self is still serving as the head coach of the Kansas Jayhawks men's basketball team on December 31, 2026. This is based on current discussions and news about his future with the team.