Markets

This market resolves to Yes if 'Project Hail Mary' generates more than $800 million in global box office revenue by December 31, 2026. Box office data will be confirmed through reliable box office tracking sites like Box Office Mojo.

This market resolves to Yes if any major sports league (such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, or Premier League) announces a policy requiring their finals or championship games to be broadcast on free-to-air television in addition to any paywalled streaming services by the end of 2026. The announcement must come explicitly from the league itself, not from individual broadcasters.

This market resolves to Yes if the authorities officially announce the solving of the 12-tonne KitKat bar theft that occurred in 2026, including identifying the responsible parties, by December 31, 2026. If no official announcement is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Will 15% or more of listed Israeli companies receive a CDP climate score in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if 15% or more of the Israeli companies listed on the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) receive a climate score in 2026. The evaluation will be based on the official CDP report published at the end of 2026.

Will more than five U.S. school districts announce new teacher misconduct policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if six or more U.S. school districts publicly announce and implement new policies specifically addressing teacher misconduct by December 31, 2026. Announcements must be verifiable through official district press releases or reputable news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the new television adaptation of Charlotte Brontë's 'Jane Eyre,' starring Aimee Lou Wood, premieres on any platform by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from the production company, network, or major entertainment news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if Somoy TV publicly announces the establishment of a dedicated Climate, Environment and Nature Desk before December 31, 2026. The announcement must be verifiable through official channels, such as a press release by Somoy TV, major news publications, or an official statement on Somoy TV's website.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, Hub Group receives a regulatory fine due to the restatement of their financials for certain quarters of 2025. Evidence will be based on official announcements from regulatory bodies or Hub Group's public filings.

This market resolves to Yes if Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi successfully implements the proposed tax cuts by December 31, 2026. This will be verified by official announcements or publications from the Japanese government confirming the enactment of these tax policies.

This market resolves to Yes if the 2026 Lurie Children's Charity Gaming Convention raises more than $500,000 in total donations. Confirmation will be based on official public financial statements or an official announcement by Lurie Children's Hospital by the end of the event.

This market resolves to Yes if a publicly documented and verifiable prototype of a quantum compass utilizing phonon lasers, as described by researchers at the University of Rochester and Rochester Institute of Technology, is demonstrated by December 31, 2026. The demonstration must be covered by reputable science or technology news outlets, and details should be accessible to the public.

This market resolves to Yes if News Corporation publicly announces the completion of an acquisition of a major digital real estate company by December 31, 2026. A major digital real estate company is defined as one with annual revenues exceeding $200 million. The announcement must come from official News Corp communications, such as press releases or financial filings.

This market resolves to Yes if the total value of mergers and acquisitions in the sports industry exceeds €3 billion by the end of 2026, according to a publicly accessible report from a reputable financial analysis firm such as Oaklins or a similar entity.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Union officially enacts a new climate adaptation policy, specifically addressing flooding risks, by December 31, 2026. The enactment must be an official policy adopted by the European governing bodies and confirmed through reputable news sources or official EU releases.

Will the U.S. Congress pass a new tariff policy by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new tariff policy is passed by both houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the President by December 31, 2026. The policy must specify new tariff structures or rates different from those existing as of February 23, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Oracle publicly announces a strategic partnership specifically centered around AI development or infrastructure with a tech firm based in a Middle Eastern country by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made through a credible and verifiable source such as Oracle's press release or a reputable news outlet.

Will Microsoft's new glass data storage method be publicly demonstrated by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Microsoft publicly demonstrates its glass data storage technology, as described in the TweakTown article, by December 31, 2026. A public demonstration must be confirmed by a credible news source or official Microsoft announcement. The demonstration should showcase the technology's capability to store data on borosilicate glass.

Will Apple's MacBook Pro feature a two-stack tandem OLED display by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Apple officially releases a MacBook Pro model with a two-stack tandem OLED display before December 31, 2026. This confirmation must come directly from Apple through a press release, official product announcement, or detailed product specifications on Apple's official website.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Texas Governor Greg Abbott lifts the suspension on state approvals for new data center power grid connections before December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, President Donald Trump proposes a new tariff plan specifically to Congress, following the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his previous global tariffs. The proposal must be publicly documented and verified through credible news sources.

Will the United States and Iran finalize a new nuclear agreement by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a formal and publicly acknowledged new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran is signed and announced by December 31, 2026. The agreement must be confirmed by reliable sources such as government announcements or major international news outlets. If no such agreement is reached and announced by the specified date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a 100-year flood event, as defined by hydrological standards, occurs in Southern Africa in 2026 and is linked to climate change factors. Verification will be based on reports from reputable sources, such as the World Meteorological Organization or peer-reviewed scientific studies.

Will Tesla complete a merger with SpaceX or xAI by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Tesla announces the completion of a merger with either SpaceX or xAI by December 31, 2026. Official announcements from Tesla or regulatory filings will be used to determine the resolution of this market.

This market resolves to Yes if any major scientific journal officially announces the adoption of 'peer replication' as a standard practice for validating research by December 31, 2026. Peer replication refers to the verification of scientific studies through independent reproduction of their experiments, to enhance the reliability of published research.