Markets

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study confirms by December 31, 2027, that liquid crystal monomers (LCMs), found in e-waste, have gene-altering effects on humans. Reports or preliminary results are insufficient; the study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal and directly link LCMs to changes in human gene activity.

This market resolves to Yes if the molecular compound 5-tetradecyloxy-2-furoic acid (TOFA) begins human clinical trials focused on obesity treatment by December 31, 2027. TOFA has shown promising results in mice for increasing energy usage and reducing body fat. The resolution will be based on official announcements from scientific institutions or pharmaceutical companies.

Will Japan initiate its first commercial ocean seabed mining operation by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Japan officially begins its first commercial operation to mine the ocean seabed for minerals by December 31, 2027. The resolution will be based on verifiable reports from credible news sources confirming the commencement of commercial mining activities on or before this date.

Will Nvidia sell $1 trillion worth of its Blackwell and Rubin chips by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2027, Nvidia publicly reports that it has reached $1 trillion in sales from its Blackwell and Rubin chip products. Official sales reports, press releases, or formal announcements from Nvidia will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if the restoration of Palazzo Danieli Excelsior, increasing the total accommodations to 168 rooms and suites, is publicly confirmed as completed on or before December 31, 2027.

Will the Zapotec tomb discovery lead to a new cultural heritage site in Southern Mexico by 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if the Mexican government officially declares the site of the recently discovered 1,400-year-old Zapotec tomb in San Pablo Huitzo, Oaxaca, as a new cultural heritage site by December 31, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if a scientific demonstration of a practical quantum technology application using entanglement created by sunlight is publicly announced by December 31, 2027. Practical applications may include quantum communication or computing tasks. The announcement must come from a credible scientific organization or journal.

This market resolves to Yes if a commercial product using nanocrystals synthesized through the new method described by University of Chicago researchers is publicly announced by any company by December 31, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if scientific reports published by a credible institution (such as NASA, the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or a peer-reviewed scientific journal) confirm that Jakobshavn Glacier has reached a critical tipping point by December 31, 2027. The tipping point is defined as a significant and sustained acceleration in the glacier's melt rate leading to irreversible retreat.

This market resolves to Yes if a sequel to 'How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days', to be produced by Kate Hudson and including Matthew McConaughey, is publicly available for streaming on Paramount+ by December 31, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if the True/False Film Fest, held in Columbia, Missouri, announces the introduction of more than 5 new categories for documentaries or film screenings by December 31, 2027. This includes any newly created sections or thematic focuses distinct from existing categories as of March 2026.

Will the next-gen Xbox console be officially announced by AMD or Microsoft by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement about the next-gen Xbox console is made by either AMD or Microsoft by December 31, 2027. The announcement must be confirmed through a press release, official company statement, or coverage by a credible media source.

This market resolves to Yes if a credible scientific consensus is reached and published in a peer-reviewed journal that confirms the existence of black holes that predate the Big Bang as a source of dark matter by December 31, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2027, a major global health organization such as the World Health Organization (WHO) or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officially adopts a new international healthcare data language that facilitates data sharing across borders, as discussed by Dr. Hannah Galvin and the Shift Collective. The resolution will be based on formal announcements from the mentioned organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2027, Intuit's AI-powered ERP solution tailored for the construction industry captures at least 10% of the market share as reported by a reputable industry analysis or report.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a new therapy for pancreatic cancer, specifically one targeting the mutated gene responsible for 90% of cases, by December 31, 2027. The therapy must be based on the recent breakthrough described in news where mice trials showed significant tumor regression without side effects.

This market resolves to Yes if Lands' End, as part of its joint venture with WHP Global, reports total licensing revenues exceeding $500 million by December 31, 2027. The resolution will be based on official financial statements released by Lands' End or WHP Global.

This market resolves to Yes if a major scientific journal such as Nature, Science, or Cell publishes an article by December 2027 that significantly revises the understanding of 'disruptive science' in light of new methodologies or data corrections. The article must have a clear impact on the field, as evidenced by significant citations or coverage in science policy discussions.

This market resolves to Yes if BTS's 'ARIRANG' world tour is confirmed to be the highest-grossing K-pop tour on record by December 31, 2027. The confirmation must come from a credible source such as Billboard, Forbes, or a similar reputable music industry publication.

This market resolves to Yes if a working prototype of a quantum compass using phonon lasers is publicly demonstrated by December 31, 2027. The demonstration must be reported in reputable scientific journals or major news outlets and show the practical use of phonon lasers in measuring gravity or as an alternative to GPS.

Will Nvidia sell $1 trillion worth of Blackwell and Rubin chips by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Nvidia announces through an official statement, financial report, or press release that it has sold $1 trillion worth of its Blackwell and Rubin chips by December 31, 2027. The announcement must be publicly verifiable.

This market resolves to Yes if Medicaid enrollment in Illinois, as reported by the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services, decreases by more than 10% from its current figures by December 31, 2027.

Will Nvidia sell $1 trillion of Blackwell and Rubin chips by the end of 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Nvidia's cumulative sales of Blackwell and Rubin chips reach at least $1 trillion by December 31, 2027. Sales figures will be verified through Nvidia's public financial disclosures and reports.

This market resolves to Yes if a recognized regulatory body or international healthcare organization formally establishes a comprehensive standard for the use of AI in patient-facing clinical applications within behavioral health settings by December 31, 2027. Such a standard must be publicly announced and widely accepted within the healthcare industry.