Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if the price of gold reaches or exceeds $2,500 per ounce on the international market at any point before December 31, 2026, based on publicly available data such as from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

Will the Dutch government implement legally binding emission targets for Bonaire by July 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if official government documentation or reputable news sources confirm that the Dutch government has implemented legally binding targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, for the island of Bonaire by July 31, 2027.

Will the Zapotec tomb discovery lead to a new cultural heritage site in Southern Mexico by 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if the Mexican government officially declares the site of the recently discovered 1,400-year-old Zapotec tomb in San Pablo Huitzo, Oaxaca, as a new cultural heritage site by December 31, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 index closes at a level above 7,000 on the last trading day of 2026. It uses the official closing value published by the New York Stock Exchange for December 31, 2026. If December 31 is not a trading day, the resolution will use the closing value of the next trading day.

This market resolves to Yes if General Motors' electric vehicle division reports a profitable quarter (positive net income) by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026. The official financial statements released by GM for Q4 2026 will be used to determine the outcome.

Will Australia enter a recession by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in any of their reports by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.

Will a legal mandate be passed in the Netherlands by July 2027 to protect Bonaire from climate change impacts?

This market resolves to Yes if, by July 31, 2027, the Dutch government passes a legal mandate that includes binding targets to protect the residents of Bonaire from the effects of climate change, as ordered by the Hague District Court. The mandate must specifically outline measures in line with the Paris Climate Agreement.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a recognized scientific body officially announces the discovery of a previously unknown exoplanet by the James Webb Space Telescope by December 31, 2026. The discovery must be acknowledged through official publications or announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if definitive data or a major international climate authority confirms that global carbon emissions have peaked and started to decline before January 1, 2029. The data must be widely recognized and reported in respected climate science publications or by organizations like the United Nations or the International Energy Agency.

This market resolves to Yes if Lands' End, as part of its joint venture with WHP Global, reports total licensing revenues exceeding $500 million by December 31, 2027. The resolution will be based on official financial statements released by Lands' End or WHP Global.

This market resolves to Yes if a major video game publisher publicly announces that a new game will feature entirely AI-generated content with no human involvement in its creation by December 31, 2026. The game must be backed by a well-known publisher such as EA, Ubisoft, or Activision, and the announcement must be verified by credible sources.