Which scientific discovery will win the 2027 Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences?

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?

SpaceX is preparing Starship Flight Test 15, a near-term test that could be key to proving its launch and recovery plan. Resolves Yes if the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with liftoff meaning the vehicle rises off the launch mount under its own power, regardless of what happens afterward.

This market resolves to Yes if a new vertebrate species is officially announced and published by December 31, 2026, with documented unique eye pigment adaptations different from existing known species. The discovery must be confirmed by a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

This market resolves to Yes if the National Science Foundation allocates at least 90% of its research budget for fiscal year 2027 by January 31, 2027. This will be determined by official NSF announcements or news reports confirming the allocation of funds.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a credible scientific paper or announcement concludes that a forgotten particle offers a new or significant explanation for the existence of the universe, recognized by leading scientific journals or institutions.

This market resolves to Yes if the next confirmed space mission to Saturn's moon Enceladus announces the detection of organic compounds consistent with the suggestion of life (e.g., amino acids, lipids) in its publicly released findings by December 31, 2030. The mission's formal results must be published in a reputable journal or as part of an official agency report to count. If no such mission occurs or no such findings are published by the deadline, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific paper or a public announcement reports a new precise value of the gravitational constant (Big G) with improved accuracy (e.g., a smaller uncertainty) compared to current known experimental results by September 30, 2027. The announcement must be made by a credible organization such as NIST, a major university, or a prominent journal like Nature or Science. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.