Will at least 50 ships successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the lawsuit filed by the coalition of minority-owned bodegas and supermarkets results in stopping, invalidating, or indefinitely delaying the NYC plan to build city-run grocery stores before December 31, 2026. Any court decision or settlement that prevents the stores from being established by this date will constitute a 'Yes' outcome.

Will the adoption rate for the new COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. reach at least 50% by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if official data from the CDC or a similar authoritative source shows that at least 50% of the eligible U.S. population has received one of the FDA-approved 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines by December 31, 2026. If data shows that less than 50% have been vaccinated by this date, the market resolves to 'No'.

This market resolves to Yes if credible public health data released by March 2027 shows at least a 30% reduction in COVID infection rates in the U.S. compared to the same period in the previous year, attributed to the use of new vaccines targeting the XFG variant.

This market resolves to Yes if official attendance records for the 2026 Maryland Renaissance Festival show more than 368,000 attendees by October 25, 2026. The resolution will be based on publicly released attendance figures by the festival organizers.

This market resolves to Yes if the official count of missing persons in Nepal's flash floods rises to over 4,000 as reported by a reputable international or local news agency by September 30, 2026.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the 2027 MLS All-Star Week includes a program or event that explicitly incorporates professional sporting elements into corporate meetings or retreats, similar to programs announced in 2026. Public announcements from MLS, corporate sponsors, or event organizers will be used to determine the outcome.