Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if Medicare officially announces coverage for the breast cancer test Oncotype DX by August 31, 2026. Oncotype DX is a trusted diagnostic test used by cancer specialists to guide treatment decisions. The market will resolve based on an official announcement from Medicare or related federal agencies confirming the coverage policy by the specified date.

Will Israel's Health Ministry reverse its ban on external AI tools in government hospitals by August 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Israel's Health Ministry announces an official reversal of its decision to ban external AI tools (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) in government hospital computer networks by August 31, 2026. Official public announcements from the Ministry or authoritative Israeli government releases will be used for resolution. Partial relaxations or modifications of the ban that do not constitute a full reversal will not resolve this market to Yes.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announces formal approval of the first regenerative injection therapy for osteo-arthritis, as described in recent research news, by August 31, 2026. Any official FDA announcement, press release, or public database update confirming approval will determine the outcome. If no such approval is granted by the close date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if any new state-level regulations specific to Utah's AI-driven prescription refill pilot program are officially enacted by August 31, 2026. This includes legislation, healthcare board policies, or executive actions aimed explicitly at modifying, expanding, or restricting the program. Public announcements or documented evidence of such changes will determine resolution.

Will the percentage of uninsured patients in U.S. hospitals exceed 25% by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the average percentage of uninsured patients reported by major U.S. hospitals exceeds 25% by the end of Q3 2026, as indicated in their publicly available earnings reports or official statements.

This market resolves to Yes if the Endocrine Society publicly announces, by September 2026, that hormone therapy is recommended over non-hormonal treatments (including fezolinetant) for menopause based on official guidelines or recommendations. The announcement must clearly state preference and be available on the Endocrine Society's official communication channels.

This market resolves to Yes if Universal Health Services successfully completes the acquisition of the virtual behavioral healthcare company Talkspace by October 1, 2026, as announced in the news. The resolution will be based on official announcements confirming the acquisition’s completion.

This market resolves to Yes if NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) approves funding for the new Alzheimer's treatment by November 30, 2026. The decision must be officially announced by NICE and reported in at least one major healthcare news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if Oscar Health's stock price is greater than $12 at market close on December 31, 2026. Oscar Health has been making significant strides in healthcare innovation despite financial losses, impacting its stock performance. This market evaluates the ability of Oscar Health to maintain its stock price amid ongoing challenges and opportunities in the healthcare sector.

Will the U.S. repeal the future Medicaid spending cuts by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Congress passes legislation to repeal the future Medicaid spending cuts as outlined in recent debates, by December 31, 2026.