Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if any major sports league (such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, or Premier League) announces a policy requiring their finals or championship games to be broadcast on free-to-air television in addition to any paywalled streaming services by the end of 2026. The announcement must come explicitly from the league itself, not from individual broadcasters.

This market resolves to Yes if the L.A. Metro Monthly Safety Tracker, launched to provide safety data across the Metro system, reports a 10% or greater decrease in incidents, compared to the March 2026 data, by its September 2026 report.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issues a formal antitrust complaint against the merger of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) and Paramount by the end of December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on official announcements or documents confirming the filing of such a complaint. This market acknowledges DOJ's intensified probe as reported by multiple sources.

Will hospital price caps be implemented in at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least three U.S. states enact legislation that implements price caps on hospital services. The resolution will be based on official state legislative records confirming the enactment of such caps.

This market resolves to Yes if global cloud infrastructure spending reaches or exceeds $500 billion for the entire year of 2026, according to a recognized industry report or analyst like Omdia, by the end of 2026. Given recent trends and spending patterns, this prediction accounts for an expected growth of 27% from 2025.

This market resolves to Yes if the total value of crypto-backed mortgages (using Bitcoin or USDC as collateral) issued by Better Home & Finance, tied to Fannie Mae-backed mortgages, exceeds $100 million by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official financial reports or statements released by Better Home & Finance or reputable financial news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if global spending on cloud infrastructure services exceeds $500 billion by the end of 2026, according to industry reports or reliable public financial data on cloud spending.

This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes a bill focused on reforming financial regulations related to political entities or activities, including campaign finance or lobbying, by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official congressional records and credible news sources.

Will Australia's private health insurance enrolments decrease by over 10% in 2026 due to premium hikes?

This market resolves to Yes if official national health statistics show that Australian private health insurance enrolments decrease by more than 10% in 2026 compared to 2025 levels, primarily attributed to the premium hikes announced for April 2026. The resolution will rely on reports from authoritative bodies such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) or similar organizations.

Will Huawei's new AI chip capture over 25% of NVIDIA's China market share by December 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Huawei's new AI chip is reported by a reputable source to capture over 25% of NVIDIA's AI chip market share in China by December 31, 2027. The determination will be based on market analysis reports from tech industry watchers such as IDC, Gartner, or similar sources.