Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

Active Markets

This market resolves to Yes if official industry reports confirm that PC gaming revenue exceeds console gaming revenue by December 31, 2027. This can be verified through reports from reputable industry analysts and financial data published by entities such as Newzoo, Deloitte, or PricewaterhouseCoopers.

71% chance

Will the AMOC show clear signs of collapse by end of 2026?

42%chance 11 today
Ends Dec 31

This market resolves to Yes if Congress successfully enacts a law specifically aimed at addressing healthcare affordability in the United States by December 31, 2026. The law must be signed by the President and publicly acknowledged to fulfill the criteria of addressing healthcare affordability challenges highlighted in recent surveys.

45% chance

This market resolves to Yes if there are no major disruptions lasting more than a week that prevent oil tankers from navigating through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026. A major disruption is defined as a halt in tanker traffic due to conflict, military intervention, or sanctions fully obstructing passage.

45% chance

This market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin's price exceeds $100,000 at any point before or on December 31, 2026, based on verified data from major exchanges like Coinbase or Binance.

45% chance

This market resolves to Yes if a DNA origami vaccine is officially granted FDA approval for human use on or before December 31, 2026. Any other outcome, including no approval or usage authorization by the given date, will result in a No resolution.

50% chance

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. unemployment rate for college graduates reaches or exceeds 30.0% at any point in time by December 31, 2026, according to official statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or a similarly credible source.

50% chance

This market resolves to Yes if Meta announces, through official corporate communication or credible media sources, that it has laid off 20% or more of its workforce by December 31, 2026. The reference point will be the workforce size reported as of December 31, 2025. If no such announcement is made by the deadline, this market resolves to No.

50% chance

This market resolves to Yes if the global recorded music revenue, as reported by MIDiA Research or other authoritative industry sources, exceeds $42 billion for the year 2026. This will take into account revenue from streaming, merchandise, live performances, and branding rights.

50% chance

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