Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if a paper explicitly focused on the implementation or analysis of 'peer replication' as a method in scientific research is published in a peer-reviewed journal ranked as a top-tier (top 10%) journal in its respective field by December 31, 2026. Evidence of publication will be verified through reputable databases such as PubMed, Scopus, or Web of Science.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2027, Intuit's AI-powered ERP solution tailored for the construction industry captures at least 10% of the market share as reported by a reputable industry analysis or report.

This market resolves to Yes if Bernardo Silva signs a contract with a new football club by September 1, 2026. News regarding his contract status must be announced by reputable sports media outlets before this date. If he remains a free agent or there is no verified new club signing by this date, the market resolves to No.

Will OpenAI implement the 'Declaration of Humanity' guidelines by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if OpenAI publicly announces the adoption and integration of all five main pillars of the 'Declaration of Humanity' guidelines by December 31, 2026. These pillars include maintaining human control, preventing the centralization of power, protecting personal freedom, ensuring corporate accountability under the law, and confirming AI safety before use. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a major scientific publisher publicly announces the adoption of a new automated system specifically designed to detect fraudulent or fake scientific papers by December 31, 2026. The announcement must come from a recognized scientific publishing house and include details about the system being used.