Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates
Active Markets
This market resolves to Yes if Typhoon Bavi is officially recorded as making landfall in Taiwan as a Category 4 storm or higher (maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph or 209 km/h) by July 16, 2026. If the typhoon does not make landfall in Taiwan or does so at a lower category, this market resolves to No. Official confirmation will come from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau or other widely recognized meteorological authorities.
Will Character.AI's first microdrama series achieve over 10 million cumulative views within 30 days of launch?
This market resolves to Yes if the Miami Dolphins sign a quarterback to their roster, either through free agency or trade, who was not on the team's roster at the end of the 2025 NFL season. The resolution is based on the official team roster announcement by the start of the 2026 NFL regular season.
Will the RHINE AI model contribute to a new peer-reviewed paper in a top-tier journal by August 31, 2026?
Will the EU impose additional regulatory penalties on Apple under the Digital Markets Act by August 31, 2026?
Will Britney Spears' biopic officially be announced with a release date by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if Kenneth Walker III, playing for the Kansas City Chiefs, accumulates more than 1,500 rushing yards during the 2026 NFL regular season. Official statistics from the NFL will be used to determine the result. The regular season is scheduled to end on January 4, 2027.
Will the James Webb Space Telescope identify a new galaxy cluster from the cosmic web by August 31, 2026?
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announce a Netflix wedding documentary by July 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if Kenneth Walker III is awarded the NFL Offensive Player of the Year for the 2026 season, as announced by the Associated Press. The award is usually given in early February following the conclusion of the NFL regular season and playoffs.
Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high of $69,000 or above by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if Amazon completes the sale of $25 billion in bonds, as reported by a credible financial news outlet or confirmed in Amazon's official announcements, by July 31, 2026. The sale must be explicitly finalized and publicly confirmed by this date to count as resolved.
This market resolves to Yes if Netflix launches short-form videos from digital publishers, as announced, on its homepage for U.S. customers by August 3, 2026. The market resolves to No if this feature is not implemented by the announced date. Confirmation will be based on an official Netflix announcement or direct user reports of the feature going live.
Will Graham Platner drop out of the Maine Senate race by July 13, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if official confirmation is publicly announced by NASA, the European Space Agency, or another authoritative body that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has identified and confirmed the chemical composition of a previously unknown substance on Pluto by August 15, 2026. If no confirmation or announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if any new state-level regulations specific to Utah's AI-driven prescription refill pilot program are officially enacted by August 31, 2026. This includes legislation, healthcare board policies, or executive actions aimed explicitly at modifying, expanding, or restricting the program. Public announcements or documented evidence of such changes will determine resolution.
Will the far-right AfD win at least one state government leadership position in Germany by July 31, 2026?
Will SK Hynix's Nasdaq listing exceed a market cap of $30 billion by July 14, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if Microsoft publicly announces another significant restructuring of its Xbox division (beyond what has already been announced as of July 2026) by August 31, 2026. The restructuring must involve substantial changes, such as additional layoffs, major executive changes, new studio closures, or strategic re-alignments. Public announcements via press release, official statements, or credible reporting from major outlets like Bloomberg or BBC will be used for resolution.
Will Trump's MAGA Inc. disclose a major spending plan for GOP candidates by August 31, 2026?
This market resolves to Yes if official streaming data confirms that UFC 324 achieved more than 6.5 million streams on Paramount+ by the time public viewership figures are announced. 'Streams' refers to unique viewership counts reported by Paramount+ or trusted media outlets. If no data is made public by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.