Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

Will the U.S. announce additional military actions against Iran by July 20, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. government officially announces any new military actions targeting Iran (airstrikes, naval maneuvers, or other offensive operations) by July 20, 2026. Statements from the Department of Defense, White House, or other official government bodies will be used to determine the resolution.

Will the unidentified object released by China's Shenlong space plane be officially identified by August 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if an official statement from a credible source (e.g., Chinese officials, U.S. Space Force, or a leading scientific organization) identifies the object released by the Shenlong space plane on or before August 31, 2026. The identification must include the object's purpose, function, or contents. Speculative or unverified claims will not count as resolution criteria.

Will the proposed bill capping out-of-pocket Medicare costs pass the U.S. Senate by July 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the bill proposed by Sen. Ron Wyden and co-sponsors to cap out-of-pocket costs for traditional Medicare enrollees passes the U.S. Senate on or before July 31, 2026. A 'No' resolution will occur if the bill is explicitly rejected, tabled indefinitely, or no vote occurs by the specified date. Publicly available records or announcements from the Senate will be used to determine the resolution of this market.

Will Finland approve Tesla's supervised self-driving software before the EU vote on July 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Finland officially approves Tesla's supervised self-driving software for use before the European Union votes on related regulations on July 15, 2026. Public announcements from the Finnish government or regulatory bodies will be used to determine resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if, by July 31, 2026, a public announcement, legislation, or regulation is enacted explicitly banning the use of Huawei or ZTE telecom equipment in private communication networks in the United States. Private networks include non-governmental systems such as corporate or personal telecommunications infrastructure. If no such development occurs by the specified date, this market resolves to No.