Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if by August 31, 2026, official research, based on gravitational wave detection data from 2026, identifies and confirms direct evidence of a second-generation black hole merger (a black hole created through the merger of prior black holes). Confirmation must come from a reputable source such as LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, or an internationally recognized peer-reviewed publication.

This market resolves to Yes if the proposed federal rule to prevent hospitals from charging markups on discounted drugs for Medicare patients, as announced by the Trump administration in July 2026, is officially enacted by August 15, 2026. Official enactment refers to the formal publication of the rule in the Federal Register or confirmation by the Department of Health and Human Services.

This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump or a Trump-affiliated organization officially announces the launch of a new cryptocurrency token on or before September 30, 2026. To qualify, the announcement must be made through an official Trump Organization communication channel (e.g., press release, social media, or official website) or in a publicly available financial disclosure. The token must be distinct from any pre-existing tokens associated with Trump or his businesses, such as $TRUMP. External independent reporting is not sufficient unless corroborated by official Trump Organization communication.

This market resolves to Yes if all companies referred to as the 'Magnificent Seven' (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) report earnings growth that outpaces the percentage growth of the S&P 500 index during their respective Q3 2026 earnings releases. The determination will rely on the reported earnings growth percentages (year-over-year) compared directly to the S&P 500 earnings growth percentage for Q3 2026, as published by financial sources such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or other widely trusted market data outlets by the close of the last Magnificent Seven company's earnings report release.

This market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly confirm the date of their wedding (via an official announcement, credible interview, or social media post) by July 31, 2026. For the market to resolve, the announcement must unambiguously specify the wedding date. Rumors, leaks, or unverified reports do not count as confirmation.

This market resolves to Yes if Medicare officially announces coverage for the breast cancer test Oncotype DX by August 31, 2026. Oncotype DX is a trusted diagnostic test used by cancer specialists to guide treatment decisions. The market will resolve based on an official announcement from Medicare or related federal agencies confirming the coverage policy by the specified date.

This market resolves to Yes if any major US-based cloud provider (AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud) publicly announces or releases an AI-driven code review tool by August 15, 2026. The announcement must be reported by at least two credible tech news outlets.

Will Israel's Health Ministry reverse its ban on external AI tools in government hospitals by August 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Israel's Health Ministry announces an official reversal of its decision to ban external AI tools (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) in government hospital computer networks by August 31, 2026. Official public announcements from the Ministry or authoritative Israeli government releases will be used for resolution. Partial relaxations or modifications of the ban that do not constitute a full reversal will not resolve this market to Yes.

This market resolves to Yes if the Boston Red Sox finish with a higher position than the New York Yankees in the American League East standings at the end of the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. If the Red Sox finish in the same position or below the Yankees, the market resolves to No. Official MLB standings will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if Chevrolet's official 250th anniversary campaign includes a commercial aired during the Super Bowl scheduled for February 7, 2027. Any official announcement by Chevrolet or confirmation from the NFL that Chevy will broadcast a campaign-related ad during the Super Bowl constitutes a Yes resolution. If no such ad is aired or officially confirmed, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Marina Mabrey scores 40 or more points in a single official WNBA game played on or before July 31, 2026. Official game scores as reported by the WNBA website or other credible sports reporting outlets will be used to determine the outcome.