Will an Ebola outbreak cause more than 500 cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo by September 30, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Strait of Bab el Mandeb continues to be blocked by military forces or other disruptions related to the ongoing conflict beyond September 30, 2026. Verification will be based on credible news reports confirming whether the strait remains closed to commercial shipping.

Will the United States launch a military attack on Iran by August 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if credible sources, such as the U.S. Department of Defense, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, CNN, BBC), or official statements from the U.S. government, confirm that the United States has launched a military attack on Iran by August 15, 2026. The market resolves to No otherwise. Airstrikes, drone strikes, or other direct military offensives specifically targeting Iran will qualify for resolution.

Will Andrew and Tristan Tate face formal charges in the U.S. by August 15, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Andrew and/or Tristan Tate are formally charged with criminal offenses in the United States by August 15, 2026, as confirmed by credible governmental or law enforcement statements (e.g., Department of Justice press releases). If no formal charges are announced by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

Will air quality alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke persist in the U.S. past August 1, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if any U.S. state remains under active air quality alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke beyond August 1, 2026. Official air quality alerts must be verified through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or similar government agency reports.

This market resolves to Yes if public and credible reports confirm that commercial shipping traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2026. Public confirmation can come from governments, international maritime organizations, or major verified news outlets. If no such reports are available by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the European Union has officially imposed profit caps or windfall taxes on energy companies, as proposed by some European finance ministers due to surging oil and gas prices driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran.