Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

Will hospital price caps be implemented in at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least three U.S. states enact legislation that implements price caps on hospital services. The resolution will be based on official state legislative records confirming the enactment of such caps.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, any prominent AI tool used for interpreting patient medical records becomes officially recognized as HIPAA-compliant. Verification will be based on public announcements from a recognized regulatory body or a statement from the tool developer confirming HIPAA compliance.

This market resolves to Yes if official healthcare reports indicate a 20% or higher increase in the number of UK patients opting to pay for certain healthcare services out of pocket compared to baseline numbers from prior years, by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a pilot program successfully demonstrates that behavioral health data can securely and effectively flow between providers, vocational programs, and housing authorities in the nine states selected by ASTP/ONC. The resolution will be based on an official announcement from the ASTP or relevant authorities indicating success.

This market resolves to Yes if Congress successfully enacts a law specifically aimed at addressing healthcare affordability in the United States by December 31, 2026. The law must be signed by the President and publicly acknowledged to fulfill the criteria of addressing healthcare affordability challenges highlighted in recent surveys.

Will Australia's private health insurance enrolments decrease by over 10% in 2026 due to premium hikes?

This market resolves to Yes if official national health statistics show that Australian private health insurance enrolments decrease by more than 10% in 2026 compared to 2025 levels, primarily attributed to the premium hikes announced for April 2026. The resolution will rely on reports from authoritative bodies such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) or similar organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if there is credible evidence by April 2027 that the expansion of Cardinal Health's Actinium-225 (Ac-225) production has successfully eased supply constraints for targeted alpha therapies. Confirmation can come from industry reports, announcements from Cardinal Health, or independent healthcare analyses indicating a reduction in supply issues.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if no rural hospitals in Michigan close due to financial difficulties by August 2027, as publicly reported. Closures must be attributed to financial issues such as declining reimbursement rates, rising costs, or declining patient numbers.